Game Analysis

Lean – Iowa State (+2.5)  23   Clemson  21

Clemson outgained their FBS opponents by just 26 total yards per game yet managed to outscore those opponents by 8.2 points per game (excluding that fluke final play defensive TD vs Florida State). The Tigers usually outplay what their stats project, as their average point differential is 2.6 points per game better than what their stats would predict over the last 10 years. This year that difference was +4.1 points per game because the Tigers allowed just 3.2 points per opponents redzone opportunity, which is much better than would be projected. The top 5 defenses in the nation, including Clemson, allowed a combined 4.0 PPRZ, which is usually what the Tigers allow. So, the Tigers have experienced some defensive redzone variance this season and now they’ll be without the guy calling the defensive plays, as DC Brent Venables has taken the head coaching job at Oklahoma and won’t be with the team for this game. I suspect that Clemson won’t be better than their stats would project in redzone defense without Venables and thus won’t continue to outplay their projected scoring margin by 4.1 points per game – although I will adjust their long-term outperformance level of 2.6 points.

Clemson’s defense is among the nation’s best, at 1.3 yards per play better than average, which is the same rating as the Iowa State offense this season (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). However, I rated that unit at +1.1 yppl after adjusting for the 10.7 yppl in their final game against TCU, which skewed their average rating up. The Cyclones are led by veteran quarterback Brock Purdy, who completed 73% of his passes and was 1.1 yards per pass play better than average. Purdy will be without receivers Tarique Milton and Joe Scates, who combined for 423 yards on 37 targets, and All-American RB Breece Hall has opted out of this game. Hall was averaging a modest 5.2 ypr prior to that TCU game, when he scampered for 242 yards on 18 runs to end the season with 1472 yards at 5.8 ypr. Over the past 3 seasons Hall’s 5.5 ypr has not been much better than the 5.4 ypr of the #2 and #3 backs over those 3 seasons. I rate Iowa State’s offense at 0.8 yppl better than average heading into this game and project 380 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Cyclones.

Clemson’s offense has been worse than average all season and averaged only 5.1 yppl against 11 FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack. It appears as if the offense improved down the stretch by averaging 35.2 points over their last 5 games (excluding the fluke TD vs FSU), but they really only had one strong offensive game during that stretch – the 535 yards at 7.3 yppl in their 48-27 win over Wake Forest. In the other 4 games down the stretch the Tigers averaged just 5.1 yppl vs teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack, so they aren’t much improved at all. They just had one great offensive game and quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei averaged 5.8 yards per pass play or less in 9 of the 11 games against FBS opponents. Iowa State (0.6 yards per rushing play better than average) should contain a Clemson rushing attack that is just 0.3 yprp better than average and Uiagalelei will likely have another bad game against a good Iowa State defense that I rate at 0.4 yppp better than average even after accounting for the absence of starters Young and King. Iowa State was 0.7 yppl better than averaged defensively this season and I rate that unit at 0.5 yppl with current personnel, which is more than good enough to contain Clemson’s sub-par attack. I project 309 total yards at 5.0 yppl for the Tigers in this game.

The math favors Iowa State by 2.7 points based on the projected box score and including special teams, but I adjusted the math model prediction by 2.6 points in Clemson’s favor based on their long-term trend of outperforming their statistical projections. That makes this game even and Clemson applies to a 9-39 ATS bowl situation that plays against favorites that ended the regular season on a winning streak. I’ll lean with Iowa State plus the points.