Game Analysis

Clemson (-10)  33   GEORGIA TECH  28

Clemson has allowed an average of just 21.4 points the past 4 seasons under defensive coordinator Brent Venables but the Tigers have allowed an average of 28.5 points per game to Georgia Tech’s option attack. Option offenses are relatively better against better defensive teams so Clemson’s defense prowess is dampened a bit by the Yellow Jackets, who I think will keep this game close.

Georgia Tech had a down year offensively in 2015 and struggled in their opener against Boston College but that unit was great last week against a solid Vanderbilt defense, racking up 511 yards and 38 points at 8.2 yards per play against the Commodores. Clemson’s offense, meanwhile, has not been nearly as good as expected so far this season. The Tigers averaged only 5.1 yppl against Auburn and just 5.0 yppl against Troy before taking out their frustrations on South Carolina State last week, but 7.1 yppl against that bad FCS defense isn’t that impressive either.

I actually haven’t downgraded Clemson’s offensive rating much since that unit is pretty much the same as it was last season and the Tigers should move the ball well against a Georgia Tech defense that isn’t nearly as good as the 10.3 points per game that they’re allowing through 3 games. The Yellow Jackets allowed 5.2 yards per play in those 3 games to a collection of really bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.7 yppl against an average defense. My ratings project 6.5 yppl for the Tigers in this game and a decent 5.4 yppl for Georgia Tech.

Overall the math favors Clemson to by 10 points, so the line is fair, but Georgia Tech applies to a 59-16 ATS big home underdog situation and a 95-35-2 ATS situation. The angles actually are similar and intersect quite often. The record is 19-4 ATS when both angles apply to the same game and I’ll lean with the Yellow Jackets based on the strong situation.