(3) Clemson @

(12) Florida St.

Sat, Oct 29
ABC
5:00 PM Pacific
WatchESPN
Rotation: 149
Odds: Florida St. +4.5, Total: 60

Game Analysis

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Clemson (-4.5)  28   FLORIDA STATE  27

My math model favors Clemson by 4 points, so the line is fair, but the bye each team had last week is likely to help the home underdog more. Conference home underdogs of 3 points or more, with a .500 or better win percentage, off a bye, and with revenge for a loss the previous season are a solid 108-67-5 ATS over the years while unbeaten (5-0 or better) road favorites of more than 3 points off a bye week are just 9-33-1 ATS (4-21-1 versus a revenging team). I’ll lean with Florida State based on the situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Clemson
  • Florida St.
CLEM
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 34.2 37.7
  • Run Yards 160.8 148.7
  • YPRP 4.9 4.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 25.3 17.5
  • Pass Att 40.5 32.8
  • Comp % 62.5% 53.3%
  • Pass Yards 299.3 184.8
  • Sacks 1.0 3.2
  • Sack Yards 6.3 20.5
  • Sack % 2.4% 8.8%
  • Pass Plays 41.5 36.0
  • Net Pass Yards 293.0 164.3
  • YPPP 7.1 4.6

Total

  • Total Plays 75.7 73.7
  • Total Yards 460.2 333.5
  • YPPL 6.1 4.5

TO


  • Int 1.3 1.7
  • Int % 3.3% 5.1%
  • Fumbles 1.3 0.7
  • Turnovers 2.7 2.3
 
  • Points 36.6 15.3
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