Game Analysis
Clemson (-4.5) 28 FLORIDA STATE 27
My math model favors Clemson by 4 points, so the line is fair, but the bye each team had last week is likely to help the home underdog more. Conference home underdogs of 3 points or more, with a .500 or better win percentage, off a bye, and with revenge for a loss the previous season are a solid 108-67-5 ATS over the years while unbeaten (5-0 or better) road favorites of more than 3 points off a bye week are just 9-33-1 ATS (4-21-1 versus a revenging team). I’ll lean with Florida State based on the situation.
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.2
37.7
-
Run Yards
160.8
148.7
-
YPRP
4.9
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
25.3
17.5
-
Pass Att
40.5
32.8
-
Comp %
62.5%
53.3%
-
Pass Yards
299.3
184.8
-
Sacks
1.0
3.2
-
Sack Yards
6.3
20.5
-
Sack %
2.4%
8.8%
-
Pass Plays
41.5
36.0
-
Net Pass Yards
293.0
164.3
-
YPPP
7.1
4.6
Total
-
Total Plays
75.7
73.7
-
Total Yards
460.2
333.5
-
YPPL
6.1
4.5
TO
-
Int
1.3
1.7
-
Int %
3.3%
5.1%
-
Fumbles
1.3
0.7
-
Turnovers
2.7
2.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
40.4
30.7
-
Run Yards
217.7
159.1
-
YPRP
6.0
6.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.1
16.0
-
Pass Att
33.1
28.1
-
Comp %
60.8%
56.9%
-
Pass Yards
270.1
233.4
-
Sacks
3.0
3.4
-
Sack Yards
24.4
24.4
-
Sack %
8.3%
10.9%
-
Pass Plays
36.1
31.6
-
Net Pass Yards
245.7
209.0
-
YPPP
6.8
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
76.6
62.3
-
Total Yards
487.9
392.6
-
YPPL
6.4
6.3
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.3
-
Int %
1.7%
4.6%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.3
2.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/16 @ Auburn |
19-13 |
-8.0
L
|
44/38 |
151/115 |
3.4/3.0 |
1/1 |
19/15 |
34/28 |
248/147 |
1/2 |
0/3 |
7.3/4.7 |
399/262 |
5.1/3.8 |
09/10/16 Troy |
30-24 |
-35.0
L
|
29/31 |
132/157 |
4.6/5.1 |
1/0 |
27/26 |
53/45 |
284/237 |
2/3 |
1/1 |
5.3/5.2 |
416/394 |
5.0/5.1 |
09/17/16 South Carolina State |
59-0 |
0.0
W
|
42/27 |
230/82 |
5.5/3.0 |
0/1 |
27/8 |
35/23 |
325/22 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
9.0/0.8 |
555/104 |
7.1/1.9 |
09/22/16 @ Georgia Tech |
26-7 |
-10.0
W
|
33/35 |
143/125 |
4.3/3.6 |
0/0 |
32/4 |
48/14 |
299/-1 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
6.1/-0.1 |
442/124 |
5.4/2.4 |
10/01/16 Louisville |
42-36 |
+2.0
W
|
30/49 |
195/302 |
6.5/6.2 |
2/2 |
20/27 |
31/44 |
306/273 |
3/1 |
0/5 |
9.9/5.6 |
501/575 |
8.2/5.9 |
10/07/16 @ Boston College |
56-10 |
-17.0
W
|
33/45 |
241/170 |
7.3/3.8 |
1/1 |
15/12 |
25/24 |
258/79 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
9.6/2.9 |
499/249 |
8.3/3.5 |
10/15/16 No Carolina St. |
24-17 |
-17.5
L
|
36/28 |
141/146 |
3.9/5.2 |
3/0 |
39/21 |
52/42 |
363/251 |
1/2 |
2/4 |
6.7/5.5 |
504/397 |
5.6/5.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/05/16 Mississippi |
45-34 |
-5.5
W
|
38/20 |
177/105 |
4.7/5.3 |
0/1 |
33/21 |
52/39 |
403/275 |
0/3 |
3/5 |
7.3/6.3 |
580/380 |
6.2/5.9 |
09/10/16 Charleston Southern |
52-8 |
0.0
W
|
33/35 |
191/189 |
5.8/5.4 |
0/3 |
26/7 |
35/20 |
247/105 |
1/0 |
3/4 |
6.5/4.4 |
438/294 |
6.2/5.0 |
09/17/16 @ Louisville |
20-63 |
-1.5
L
|
37/43 |
232/326 |
6.3/7.6 |
1/0 |
8/13 |
24/20 |
66/207 |
1/1 |
5/1 |
2.3/9.9 |
298/533 |
4.5/8.3 |
09/24/16 @ South Florida |
55-35 |
-5.5
W
|
60/38 |
495/315 |
8.3/8.3 |
1/0 |
11/5 |
19/14 |
152/135 |
0/2 |
3/3 |
6.9/7.9 |
647/450 |
7.9/8.2 |
10/01/16 North Carolina |
35-37 |
-11.0
L
|
41/29 |
241/147 |
5.9/5.1 |
0/1 |
20/31 |
32/38 |
354/393 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
10.4/9.6 |
595/540 |
7.9/7.7 |
10/08/16 @ Miami Fla |
20-19 |
+3.0
W
|
39/24 |
204/78 |
5.2/3.3 |
0/0 |
21/19 |
33/32 |
219/200 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
6.3/5.7 |
423/278 |
5.7/4.7 |
10/15/16 Wake Forest |
17-6 |
-21.5
L
|
35/26 |
155/125 |
4.4/4.8 |
3/1 |
22/16 |
37/34 |
279/148 |
1/2 |
3/5 |
7.0/3.8 |
434/273 |
5.8/4.2 |