Game Analysis
Lean – WESTERN MICHIGAN (-3) 35 Central Michigan 28
Lean – Over (56.5)
My math model favors Western Michigan by 5.7 points and Central Michigan applies to a 39-98-3 ATS letdown situation that plays against teams coming off a high-scoring upset win (they upset Northern Illinois 37-31 last Tuesday). This game should be high-scoring too, as Western Michigan’s offense has been pretty good since benching QB Salopek in week 3 while the Broncos’ defense is horrible. Western Michigan has gone over the total in 6 of their last 7 games.
I’ll lean with Western Michigan at -3 or less and I’ll lean Over 57 or less.
- Central Mich
- Western Mich
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.8
29.6
-
Run Yards
172.9
162.7
-
YPRP
4.7
5.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.8
19.1
-
Pass Att
27.8
31.1
-
Comp %
56.8%
61.4%
-
Pass Yards
178.3
254.8
-
Sacks
1.9
1.6
-
Sack Yards
11.8
8.0
-
Sack %
6.4%
4.8%
-
Pass Plays
29.7
32.7
-
Net Pass Yards
166.6
246.8
-
YPPP
5.6
7.6
Total
-
Total Plays
66.5
62.2
-
Total Yards
339.4
409.5
-
YPPL
5.1
6.6
TO
-
Int
1.0
0.4
-
Int %
3.6%
1.4%
-
Fumbles
0.1
0.2
-
Turnovers
1.1
0.7
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.8
31.0
-
Run Yards
161.1
170.8
-
YPRP
4.5
5.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.0
20.5
-
Pass Att
34.1
33.0
-
Comp %
61.5%
62.1%
-
Pass Yards
214.8
253.5
-
Sacks
2.4
2.3
-
Sack Yards
14.5
16.4
-
Sack %
6.5%
6.4%
-
Pass Plays
36.5
35.3
-
Net Pass Yards
200.3
237.1
-
YPPP
5.5
6.7
Total
-
Total Plays
72.3
66.3
-
Total Yards
361.4
407.9
-
YPPL
5.0
6.2
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.9
-
Int %
1.8%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/23 @ Michigan St. |
7-31 |
+14.5
L
|
38/30 |
141/157 |
3.7/5.2 |
0/0 |
13/18 |
25/32 |
78/270 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
2.8/8.2 |
219/427 |
3.3/6.8 |
09/09/23 New Hampshire |
45-42 |
0.0
W
|
48/13 |
267/58 |
5.6/4.5 |
0/1 |
8/32 |
20/52 |
173/488 |
2/1 |
4/1 |
7.2/9.2 |
440/546 |
6.1/8.3 |
09/16/23 @ Notre Dame |
17-41 |
+34.5
W
|
32/36 |
153/238 |
4.8/6.6 |
0/0 |
10/17 |
20/28 |
117/342 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
5.3/12.2 |
270/580 |
5.0/9.1 |
09/23/23 @ South Alabama |
34-30 |
+16.5
W
|
36/31 |
136/166 |
3.8/5.4 |
0/0 |
20/17 |
31/27 |
219/235 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
6.6/8.1 |
355/401 |
5.1/6.7 |
09/30/23 Eastern Mich |
26-23 |
-9.5
L
|
26/35 |
201/171 |
7.7/4.9 |
0/0 |
19/20 |
26/26 |
210/169 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
7.8/5.8 |
411/340 |
7.8/5.3 |
10/07/23 @ Buffalo |
13-37 |
-3.0
L
|
24/33 |
81/126 |
3.4/3.8 |
1/0 |
27/20 |
49/32 |
261/229 |
3/0 |
1/2 |
5.2/6.7 |
342/355 |
4.6/5.3 |
10/14/23 Akron |
17-10 |
-11.0
L
|
47/17 |
135/89 |
2.9/5.2 |
0/0 |
17/16 |
32/33 |
176/106 |
2/2 |
2/2 |
5.2/3.0 |
311/195 |
3.8/3.8 |
10/21/23 @ Ball St. |
17-24 |
-5.5
L
|
33/43 |
111/247 |
3.4/5.7 |
0/0 |
19/13 |
31/16 |
149/98 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
4.5/5.4 |
260/345 |
3.9/5.7 |
10/31/23 Northern Ill |
37-31 |
+3.5
W
|
47/28 |
331/212 |
7.0/7.6 |
0/1 |
9/19 |
16/34 |
116/284 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
7.3/8.1 |
447/496 |
7.1/7.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/23 St. Francis (PA) |
35-17 |
0.0
W
|
65/19 |
348/64 |
5.4/3.4 |
0/0 |
18/14 |
26/24 |
163/217 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
6.0/8.0 |
511/281 |
5.6/6.1 |
09/09/23 @ Syracuse |
7-48 |
+24.0
L
|
22/34 |
95/158 |
4.3/4.6 |
0/0 |
27/25 |
47/39 |
180/351 |
1/0 |
4/2 |
3.5/8.6 |
275/509 |
3.8/6.8 |
09/16/23 @ Iowa |
10-41 |
+28.5
L
|
34/39 |
138/283 |
4.1/7.3 |
1/0 |
7/11 |
18/22 |
107/79 |
0/2 |
2/4 |
5.4/3.0 |
245/362 |
4.5/5.6 |
09/23/23 @ Toledo |
31-49 |
+21.5
W
|
52/42 |
256/273 |
4.9/6.5 |
2/2 |
13/14 |
26/24 |
143/205 |
2/2 |
3/0 |
4.9/8.5 |
399/478 |
4.9/7.2 |
09/30/23 Ball St. |
42-24 |
-1.0
W
|
34/20 |
146/96 |
4.3/4.8 |
0/1 |
24/26 |
39/37 |
323/268 |
0/0 |
1/6 |
8.1/6.2 |
469/364 |
6.3/5.8 |
10/07/23 @ Mississippi St. |
28-41 |
+21.0
W
|
30/33 |
128/194 |
4.3/5.9 |
0/1 |
33/23 |
45/32 |
287/246 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
6.1/7.7 |
415/440 |
5.4/6.8 |
10/14/23 Miami Ohio |
21-34 |
+8.5
L
|
38/26 |
181/98 |
4.8/3.8 |
0/1 |
19/20 |
30/35 |
122/219 |
0/1 |
4/1 |
3.6/6.1 |
303/317 |
4.2/5.1 |
10/21/23 @ Ohio |
17-20 |
+16.5
W
|
21/36 |
81/197 |
3.9/5.5 |
0/0 |
30/24 |
42/39 |
288/266 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
6.7/6.7 |
369/463 |
5.8/6.1 |
10/28/23 @ Eastern Mich |
45-21 |
-2.5
W
|
55/18 |
264/67 |
4.8/3.7 |
1/2 |
15/21 |
26/36 |
152/263 |
0/2 |
2/4 |
5.4/6.6 |
416/330 |
5.0/5.7 |