Game Analysis

Lean – Central Michigan (+3.5)  20   San Diego State  21

Saturday, December 21 – 11 am Pacific

Central Michigan has been an underrated all season (10-3 ATS) and my math model still sees some value in the Chippewas, who enter this game off an upset loss in the MAC Championship game. Central Michigan is 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively on a national scale with a solid rushing attack led by Jonathan Ward (1082 yards at 6.2 ypr) and Kobe Lewis (977 yards at 5.2 ypr) and an accurate and talented quarterback in Quinten Dormady, who completed 66.8% of his passes and has been 0.3 yards per pass play better than average (7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback). San Diego State has one of the best run defenses in the nation (3.7 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp) so it will up to Dormady to perform well against a good Aztecs’ secondary that was 0.4 yppp better than average. My math projects 337 total yards at 5.2 yards per play for Central Michigan is ideal scoring conditions (very little wind and clear skies are expected). That projection assumes that 1^st-Team All-MAC WR JaCorey Sullivan plays, but he is listed as questionable with an injured foot. Sullivan averaged 10.4 yards per target, which was significantly more than the rest of the Chippewas’ receivers and his absence would equate to 1.3 points to the Central Michigan offense.

San Diego State should struggle to move the ball too, as the Aztecs’ prefer to run the ball but have a horrible offensive line that paved the way for just 4.0 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). Central Michigan has a really good run defense too (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yprp) but quarterback Ryan Agnew should have pretty good success in this game. Agnew is horrible (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp) but the Chippewas’ pass defense is just as bad (6.7 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.6 yppp against an average defense). I project San Diego State to gain just 315 yards at 4.6 yards per play, assuming that they’ll throw the ball more than they usually do given that they won’t be able to run it.

Overall, the math projects CMU with more yards and a higher yards per play but San Diego State has better special teams and a projected edge in turnovers that gives the Aztecs the slight edge straight up (by 1.4 points). However, if the Aztecs get stubborn and decide to stick to running the ball close to 60% of the time then they’re likely to lose straight up. I’ll lean with Central Michigan at +3 or more and have no opinion on the total, but you might want to wait for an update on JaCorey Sullivan before making the play. If Sullivan is out then the math would favor San Diego State by 2.6 points.