Game Analysis

Lean – Central Michigan (+1)  26   EASTERN MICHIGAN  23

Lean – Under (54.5)

Central Michigan’s duo of running quarterbacks, Jase Bauer and Bert Emanuel Jr., have combined for 681 rushing yards on 73 scrambles the last 4 games and the pass efficiency hasn’t dropped. The heavy dose of running by the Chippewas in their new attack should serve them well in the windy conditions, which aren’t as conducive to Eastern Michigan, who will likely have to start pocket passer Taylor Powell for a second consecutive week with running QB Austin Smith banged up. Powell played well last week and is a better passer but the rushing numbers will drop and throwing won’t be as easy in the wind.

The affect of the wind isn’t a major factor (just 0.2 points more penal to EMU than to CMU) but it drops my predicted total by 1.4 points and I liked the under to begin with given the much slower pace that Central Michigan is running their offense now that they run it close to 70% of the time. That adjustment in pace doesn’t seem to be in the line.

I’ll lean with Central Michigan at +1 or more and with Under 54 points or more.