Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – WASHINGTON (-7)  31   California  17

Washington started the season with an embarrassing 7-13 home loss to Montana and then lost 10-31 at Michigan before bouncing back to beat a decent Arkansas State team 52-3 last week. Washington’s rushing attack is terrible (4.0 yprp) and the Huskies couldn’t throw the ball in their opener against Montana because they were without four of their top five wide receivers (Bynum, Odunze, and McMillan all missed the game and Polk was injured early in that game). Polk and Odunze are still out but Bynum and McMillan have played the last two games and have combined for 354 yards at 13.6 yards per target and a 73% success rate (50% success is good). Taj Davis has also been solid (231 yards at 8.6 YPT) and the Huskies threw the ball relatively well against Michigan’s strong defense (6.7 yards per pass play in that game) and torched Arkansas State for 407 aerial yards at 9.0 yppp.

Cal normally has a strong defense, but the Bears have allowed 6.0 yards per play or more in all 3 of their games, including given up 467 yards at 6.1 yppl in last week’s 42-30 win over FCS team Sacramento State (as a 24.5 point favorite). The Bears have been decent defending the run but they’ve been 0.7 yards per pass play worse than average against the pass and 0.4 yppl worse than average overall. I still rate Cal as having a better than average defense given their pedigree but they certainly aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past on that side of the ball.

Cal’s offense is improved this season thanks to a strong rushing attack (7.1 yards per rushing play) and better play from Chase Garbers’ receivers. Cal has averaged 7.1 yppl in 3 games and has been 1.0 yppl better than average so far this season. I don’t think that the Bears will continue to run the ball as well as they have but I do rate them as a better than average offense overall after being projected to be worse than average heading into the season.

While Cal’s attack has been impressive the last two games, they aren’t likely to perform well against an elite Washington defense that’s yielded just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Washington is particularly tough to throw the ball against and they allowed just 2.9 yards per pass play to Michigan’s otherwise great aerial attack and the 5.6 yppl they allowed overall to the Wolverines looks really good given how potent Michigan has been otherwise this season.

Cal is a solid team but Washington’s first two games have them underrated by the market and I’ll take Washington in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 up to -115 odds.