Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – California (+7)  29   UCLA  30

I don’t know who to root for. Cal is a Strong Opinion in this game and I went to college in Berkeley and am a faithful Golden Bear supporter. However, a UCLA win would get them to 8-4 and cash my season win total over 7 Best Bet. From a gambling perspective I obviously would like UCLA to win by less than 7 points. But, Cal needs this game to keep their bowl hopes alive and I wouldn’t mind going to a bowl game as a fan.

From a handicapping perspective, I think Cal is a better team than UCLA right now. The Bears offense with Chase Garbers at quarterback (i.e. excluding that Arizona debacle when 20 players were out) has averaged 6.7 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Bears rate at 0.9 yppl better than average offensively even after adjusting for last week’s outlier (10.3 yppl against Stanford). That’s basically the same as UCLA’s +1.0 yppl offensive rating with Thompson-Robinson in the game.

The difference in these teams is defensively, as Cal’s defense has been 0.5 yppl better than average this season while the Bruins have been just average on the stop side of the ball. The only reason this is not a Best Bet is because of a 102-36-1 ATS home momentum situation that applies to the UCLA. Cal is a Strong Opinion at +7 or more (-115 odds or better).