Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet  – *Under (52.5) – California  25   HAWAII  21

Lean – California (+1.5/+1)

Both of these teams are intact except for one major exception – Hawaii’s best receiver is out and he’s worth more than what’s being reflected in the market. It’s also expected to be windy in Honolulu for this game (13 to 16 mph winds with gusts into the high-20s) and that’s going to hurt both pass-heavy offenses.

Hawaii’s offense rates as average with starting quarterback Micah Alejado in the game (5.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average FBS attack) but that offense takes a big hit with the loss of elite wide receiver Jackson Harris, who has stated his intention to enter the transfer portal and will not play in this game.

Harris led the Rainbow Warriors in receiving yards despite missing their game against an FCS team and his 12.5 yards per target (19.7 yards per catch) and 62% success rate are elite. The rest of the Hawaii wide receivers combined for just 6.5 yards per target with the best being at 7.0 YPT. That’s a huge loss and works out to 1.0 yards per pass play, which is about 4 points with Hawaii throwing the ball more than 40 times per game.

Cal’s defense was 0.1 yppl worse than average this season (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) but the Bears were much better against the pass than they are against the run, which makes them relatively better against a team that throws the ball 63% of the time, as the Rainbow Warriors do. Cal has been without two starting defenders since week 5 (S Isaiah Crosby and LB Ryan McCulloch) but the Bears have the same rating since week 5 as they do for the season except they’ve gotten much better against the pass and much worse defending the run without those two players. In 8 games with their current group of defenders the Bears have yielded just 5.6 yards per pass play to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense while giving up 6.2 yards per rushing play, which doesn’t matter all that much against Hawaii. I project just 337 yards at 5.1 yards per play for Hawaii in this game.

Cal’s offense is also pass-heavy (41 pass plays vs 26 run plays per game) and the Bears have a talented freshman quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. JKS has averaged a modest 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) because the Bears’ receivers have a tough time getting open and drop too many passes. Cal’s a horrible running team (3.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) and they rate at 0.5 yards per play worse than average overall. Hawaii has a decent defense that allowed just 25.4 points per game and rates at just 0.2 yppl worse than average after adjusting for the negative outlier against the Air Force option (10.5 yppl allowed in that game). I project a modest 323 yards at 5.2 yppl for Cal in this game.

Overall, the math favors Hawaii by just 0.4 points, with 45.8 total points, but Cal applies to a 50-8-1 ATS bowl situation and I’ll lean with the Bears based on that angle. The play, however, is on the under. The absence of Hawaii’s big play receiver has not been properly adjusted for and the weather adjustment is another 1.8 points relative to the average scoring conditions these teams faced this season.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 52 points or more (Strong Opinion to 51 points) and I’ll Lean with Cal based on the situation.