BYU vs

Wyoming

at San Diego CA
Wed, Dec 21
6:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 217
Odds: Wyoming +10, Total: 57.5

Game Analysis

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Poinsettia Bowl

Wednesday, December 21 – 6 pm Pacific

Brigham Young (-10)  32   Wyoming  25

Lean Wyoming (+10)

I am a bit surprised at how high this line has gotten but upon further inspection the line is really not that inflated, as BYU should be better without quarterback Taysom Hill while Wyoming’s defensive injuries made a once solid unit very susceptible to the run late in the year. However, Wyoming’s defense played pretty well in their 24-27 MWC Championship game loss to San Diego State (covered as a 7 point dog) and the Cowboys have victories over good teams Boise State, Air Force, Colorado State and San Diego State in the regular season. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and they apply to a 33-11-1 ATS bowl situation that is based on their two consecutive losses. In general, teams with a winning record that are off consecutive losses are 56-36-1 ATS as an underdog or pick in their bowl game and I’m sure the Cowboys are eager to bounce back with a victory to end their best season in years.

BYU played 5 games against bowl teams and went just 2-3 in those games with their two victories coming by just 2 points against Toledo and in double-overtime against Mississippi State. The Cougars’ streak of double-digit wins to end the regular season all came against bad teams – Cincinnati, Southern Utah, U Mass, and Utah State.

BYU’s offense was 0.4 yards per play worse than average this season, averaging just 5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but I think the injury to Taysom Hill is a blessing for that attack. Hill is a good runner but he didn’t run as well this season as he had before his prior season ending injury and he is a sub-par passer. Hill still ran for 725 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play and backup quarterback Tanner Mangum is not a runner (just 147 yards on 36 runs in his career). The rushing attack will suffer a bit without Hill, but star back Jamaal Williams, who missed 3 of the team’s final 5 games, proved he was healthy with 131 yards on just 18 runs in the season finale against a better than average Utah State defense. The passing attack with Hill as the trigger man averaged only 5.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) but I expect a significant improvement with Mangum throwing the ball. Mangum stepped in for an injured Hill in the second half of their week 1 game against Nebraska last season (you might recall he threw the Hail Mary that beat the Cornhuskers on the final play) and put up solid numbers (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average QB, not including that Hail Mary). I don’t think Mangum will be 0.6 yppp better than average in this year’s system, as Hill was 1.0 yppp worse than his career rating in the new offense, which relies more on short passes. Mangum was 0.5 yppp better than Hill in the old system and I think that is the best way to compare the two quarterbacks. So, I’ll add 0.5 yppp to BYU’s projection – although it certainly could be more.

Mangum and the Cougars should move the ball much better than normal against a banged up Wyoming defense that lost 3 key defensive players in the second half of the season and went from mediocre to bad defensively. The pass defense was actually below average all season and stopping the run became an issue with the absence of defensive linemen Carl Granderson and Chase Appleby, and then LB D.J. May. I project 6.1 yards per rushing play, 6.7 yards per pass play and 450 yards at 6.4 yards per play for the Cougars in this game.

The strength of the Cougars was their defense, but that unit was only 0.1 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl) and the pass defense is 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average. BYU should be able to slow down Wyoming’s workhorse back Brian Hill (1767 yards at 5.5 ypr and 21 TD runs) but Cowboys’ quarterback Josh Allen averaged 7.6 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp) and I project him to average 7.5 yppp in this game. Overall, Wyoming is projected to tally 379 yards at 5.9 yppl but that number will rise if the coaching staff decides to take advantage of BYU’s defensive weakness and throw the ball more often than they normally do. If Wyoming gets down by double-digits late in this game, Allen can certainly lead his team to a backdoor cover.

Overall the math favors BYU by 8 ½ points with a total of 57 ½ points and the situation favors Wyoming a bit (as discussed above). I will lean with Wyoming at +10 points or more and I have no opinion on the total.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • BYU
  • Wyoming
BYU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 40.0 30.3
  • Run Yards 204.3 118.6
  • YPRP 5.4 4.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 18.6 21.4
  • Pass Att 32.0 33.0
  • Comp % 58.3% 64.7%
  • Pass Yards 185.6 265.5
  • Sacks 1.9 2.3
  • Sack Yards 10.1 14.3
  • Sack % 5.6% 6.4%
  • Pass Plays 33.9 35.3
  • Net Pass Yards 175.6 251.2
  • YPPP 5.2 7.1

Total

  • Total Plays 73.9 65.6
  • Total Yards 389.9 384.0
  • YPPL 5.3 5.9

TO


  • Int 0.9 1.6
  • Int % 2.8% 5.0%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.9
  • Turnovers 1.2 2.6
 
  • Points 30.0 19.4
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