Game Analysis

Texas Tech (-12.5)  33   Brigham Young  19

My ratings/math model has liked both of these teams all season and they are a combined 19-5 ATS. There’s not much value here, as my math favors Texas Tech by 13.6 points with a total of 51.6 points.

The best unit on the field is the Texas Tech defense, which allowed just 11.6 points in 11 games against FBS opposition and yielded just 3.9 yards per play with their starters in the game (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). BYU has a good offense that rates at 0.7 yppl better than average but Texas Tech allowed an average of just 15.2 points in 6 games against good offensive teams, including surrendering just 7 points on 3.9 yppl to BYU in week 11. Turnovers hurt the Cougars in that game and they should be better in this game – although I project just 302 yards at 5.0 yppl even with the perfect conditions at AT&T Stadium.

The Texas Tech offense was mostly very good this season and averaged 43 points in the 9 games against FBS opponents in which quarterback Behren Morton played. The Red Raiders are unbeaten with Morton, as their only loss was at Arizona State when he was out, and their offense rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average with Morton on the field this season.

The Red Raiders did struggle a bit in their first meeting against a good BYU defense (0.7 yppl better than average), as they managed just 5.2 yppl and 29 points (their lowest with Morton at quarterback), but I projected 419 yards at 6.0 yppl for Texas Tech in this game.

Tech has the edge from the line of scrimmage and the Red Raiders have about a 2 points edge in special teams, which along with their defense, has them rated #5 in the nation in net starting field position.

I don’t see enough value to make this game worth betting.