Game Analysis

Note: The line on this game has dropped to +2.5 and BYU is a Strong Opinion at that number.

1-Star Best Bet – *Brigham Young (+3)  27   IOWA STATE  23

BYU just missed being a season win total Best Bet over 6.5 wins and the 7-0 Cougars are 5-2 ATS and still underrated. I had BYU rated at 10.5 points better than average team prior to the season and so far they’ve been 13 points better than average. Iowa State, meanwhile, has only been about 5 points better than average this season and should not be favored in this game.

Iowa State has been down two All-Conference cornerbacks the last two games with Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams both sidelined. Cooper is out for the season and Williams is questionable to play this week. Without those two the Cyclones allowed an average of 9.2 yards per pass play to Cincinnati and Colorado. Iowa State rates as just 0.1 yards per play better than average for the season and are a bit worse than average defensively even if Williams returns for this game. BYU has been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they have an advantage in this game.

The Cyclones’ offense has been just 0.3 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack) and they’re likely to struggle against another good BYU defense. The Cougars were 1.0 yppl better than average defensively last season and they’ve been 0.9 yppl better than average so far this season. I project just 5.2 yppl for Iowa State in this game, which will make it tough to win given that BYU’s offense has an advantage over an Iowa State defense with a weakened secondary (I project 6.1 yppl for BYU even if Williams plays for ISU)

BYU is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 or better (Strong Opinion to +2).