Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Brigham Young (+3 -105)  28   Colorado  24

Colorado’s offense isn’t as good as they are perceived to be, as they were just 0.5 yards per play better than average this season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). Starting right tackle Phillip Houston missed the final regular season game and his not listed on the depth chart, which is a slight negative for an otherwise healthy group with no opt outs or transfers reported.

BYU’s defense has a significant advantage in this game, as the Cougars allowed just 20.1 points per game and 5.0 yppl while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Cougars will be missing one starter in safety Crew Wakley but he is nothing special and projects to be worth just 0.5 points.

BYU’s offense was 0.8 yppl better than average in the regular season and 11 of the 12 starters will be playing in this game with the exception being the right tackle Keim, who is injured along with his backup. The offense moved the ball better than normal against Houston with the 3rd-string RT playing (relative to the level of Houston’s defense), but I will dock the offense a bit more than I penalized the CU offense for being without their right tackle.

The Colorado defense was 1.2 yppl better than average in the regular season but I project that unit at 1.0 yppl better than average with the transfer of LB Nikhai Hill-Green, who was 2nd on the team in total tackles, 2nd on the team in tackles for loss and also defended 6 passes (2 being interceptions), which is very good for a linebacker. I value Hill-Green at 1.2 points.

BYU was a better team than Colorado in the regular season from the line of scrimmage and the Cougars are better in special teams while projected turnovers are basically even in this matchup. And the adjustments for this game slightly favor the Cougars,

As far as wins and losses, both teams lost to a hot Kansas team near the end of the season (BYU by 4 points and CU by 16 points) and BYU’s only other loss was by just 5 points to Big-12 Champion Arizona State while Colorado’s other two losses were to a mediocre Nebraska team by 18 points and to Kansas State by 3 points.

Colorado was better at turning yards into points, however, because BYU was -6.3% in 3rd-down conversion percentage while the Buffaloes were +3.6% on 3rd-downs. Colorado was also better in points per redzone opportunity, averaging 5.1 PPRZ on offense and just 4.2 PPRZ on defense, while BYU was even in PPRZ differential. The question is how much of the 3rd-down difference and redzone efficiency difference is due to variance and how much is real, and thus likely to continue.

Colorado projects to be 6.2% better in offensive 3rd-down conversion percentage because of the huge advantage in quarterback completion percentage and the actual difference is 6.1% (41.3% for CU and 35.2% for BYU). However, there is no explanation for why BYU’s defense has allowed opponents to convert on 41.6% of 3rd-downs given that they defend the run well and have allowed just 54.5% completions. The 37.7% conversions that Colorado’s defense has allowed is what would be expected given their defensive stats (37.9% expected), but BYU is better than Colorado in every defensive statistic that projects 3rd-down conversions and the Cougars should be allowing 35.3% 3rd-down conversions rather than 41.3%. That’s why there is a discrepancy between a model based on a projected box score (which is what my model is) and a model based on points, which would favor Colorado by 2.6 points.

BYU is projected to outgain Colorado 368 yards at 5.7 yppl to 348 yards at 5.4 yppl (adjusted for playing in a dome) and the Cougars, as previously mentioned, have an advantage in special teams while turnovers are projected to be only 0.1 in favor of the Buffaloes. The math model based on the projected box score and special teams ratings favor BYU by 5.1 points, but there is a chance that the Cougars continue to be just as bad in 3rd-down defense as they’ve been. I think a fair line is BYU by 2 points and the Cougars apply to my best bowl situation, which is now 79-15-1 ATS with 2 wins this year already (both dogs winning straight up).

I’ll take BYU in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -120 odds or better.