Game Analysis

Minnesota (-2)  26   Bowling Green  23

Minnesota’s starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has decided to transfer, and Cole Kramer has been named the starter. However, Kaliakmanis was terrible this season as he completed just 53% of his passes for 5.4 yards per pass play. I suppose Kramer could be worse but I’ve decided to make no adjustment in Minnesota’s passing game, which was 0.5 yppp worse than average. It appears that RB Darius Taylor will play after missing most of the season. Taylor led the team in rushing (591 yards at 5.7 ypr) despite playing in just 4 games (1 carry in a 5th game).

Bowling Green will be without two starting defensive backs, as top CB Jalen Huskey has transferred (worth about a point) while S Trent Simms will miss his 4th straight game due to injury. Bowling Green only allowed 23.5 points per game and 5.4 yards per play this season but they there were 0.2 yppl worse than average after adjusting for opposing offenses faced and I rate that unit at 0.4 yppl worse than average without two starting defensive backs. Star pass rusher Cashius Howell entered the transfer portal a couple of days ago but has been practicing with the team and is reportedly likely to play. I project 349 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Gophers in this game (adjusted for perfect dome conditions).

Bowling Green’s offense rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team). Backup running back Ta’ron Keith (390 yards at 5.9 ypr) has left the program but Terion Stewart, who ran for 762 yards at 6.1 ypr in 9 games has missed final 3 games due to injury and has been seen on the sidelines in street clothes, indicating that he won’t be playing. His absence is significant with Keith also gone, as #2 on the depth chart, Jaison Patterson has averaged just 4.2 ypr on his 234 career runs, including only 123 yards on 34 runs (3.4 ypr) this season.

Minnesota’s defense was worse than average on a national scale defending the run and the pass and overall the Gophers surrendered 6.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. Word is that NFL bound S Tyler Nubin will opt out of this bowl and he’s worth 1.2 points according to my algorithm. Also not listed on the availability report were defensive starters Darius Green, Maverick Baranowski and Devon Williams (while CB Tre’Von Jones is listed as questionable). I project 337 yards at 5.8 yppl for Bowling Green.

The math now favors Minnesota by 3.2 points with a total of 49.0 points.