Game Analysis

MIAMI-OHIO (-17)  33   Bowling Green  12

Miami-Ohio has a really good defense, as the RedHawks have yielded just 5.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team. That unit held their own against good teams Iowa, Cincinnati, and Ohio State (on a relative yards per play allowed basis) and they’ve given up just 4.9 yppl and 23.8 points per game to MAC opponents that are 1.1 yppl better than Bowling Green’s offense with Grant Loy at quarterback.

Bowling Green has faced only two defenses that are average or better defensively and they were shutout in both games by Kansas State and Notre Dame. The Falcons are averaging just 14 points per game against defenses that are 0.9 yppl worse than Miami’s defense and I project just 12 points for the Falcons in this game. Miami-Ohio tends to struggle offensively (just 4.8 yppl and 19.5 points per game) but the RedHawks have moved the ball pretty well in their last 3 games against bad defensive teams (6.2 yppl) and Bowling Green’s defense is the worst unit they’ve faced this season (1.3 yppl worse than average).

My math favors Miami-Ohio by 19 points even after adjusting for Bowling Green’s offense being improved the last 5 games with Grant Loy at quarterback, and the RedHawks apply to an 88-23-2 ATS big home favorite momentum situation tonight. So, I like Miami-Ohio here and I also lean under, as the slower pace that Bowling Green has run their offense at in 5 games with Loy at quarterback (they run more with Loy, who leads the team in rushing) has not been factored into the total on this game.