Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Boston College (+6)  19   VIRGINIA TECH  20

Boston College has a new defensive coordinator but the Eagles look just as strong defensively as they did last season when they yielded just 15.3 points and 4.1 yards per play. Thus far BC has given up just 12.0 points and 186 yards per game at 3.1 yards per play to Georgia Tech and U Mass. Virginia Tech is improved offensively this season with Jerod Evans at quarterback (a decent 6.3 yards per pass play) and running back Travon McMillian has averaged 6.1 ypr in two games. The Hokies still rate as an average offensive team overall and the Boston College defense has the clear advantage in that match up.

The defense also has an edge when Boston College has the football but the Eagles are much better offensively this season with former Kentucky starter Patrick Towles at quarterback and former QB Jeff Smith now cast as a big play receiver. Smith leads the Eagles with 8 catches for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns and Towles has averaged 8.8 yards per pass play through two games (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). Towles is not going to continue to be that effective but I do rate the Eagles’ aerial attack at 0.4 yppp better than average this season after being one of the worst passing offenses in college football in 2015. Virginia Tech’s defense, however, is 0.8 yards per play better than average and my ratings project just 4.4 yards per play for BC in this game.

Boston College is also projected to average 4.4 yppl and overall my ratings favor Virginia Tech by just 4 points. That’s not a ton of line value but the Hokies apply to a very negative 50-125 ATS 1^st conference game home favorite situation and conference road underdogs are historically good bets when the over/under total is low. I’ll consider Boston College a Strong Opinion at +5 or more and I’d play the Eagles in a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.