Game Analysis
Best Bet – (230) *Under (54) Boston College vs Boise State, 1-Star Under 52 or higher.
20 mph winds (with gusts into the 40s) and rain are expected in Dallas on Wednesday afternoon, which are likely to make this game much lower scoring than expected. My model leans under even without the significant weather adjustment. I’ll play Under 52 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet (Strong Opinion down to 51 points). More analysis will be sent later.
Rush
-
Run Plays
42.3
37.0
-
Run Yards
182.7
152.7
-
YPRP
4.6
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.2
21.8
-
Pass Att
28.8
37.9
-
Comp %
56.1%
57.6%
-
Pass Yards
212.0
265.6
-
Sacks
1.8
2.8
-
Sack Yards
11.1
18.3
-
Sack %
5.9%
6.9%
-
Pass Plays
30.6
40.7
-
Net Pass Yards
200.9
247.4
-
YPPP
6.6
6.1
Total
-
Total Plays
72.9
77.7
-
Total Yards
394.7
418.4
-
YPPL
5.4
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.5
-
Int %
2.8%
3.8%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.6
2.2
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.4
29.8
-
Run Yards
163.8
126.3
-
YPRP
4.9
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.9
18.2
-
Pass Att
35.4
29.2
-
Comp %
67.4%
62.3%
-
Pass Yards
291.6
222.6
-
Sacks
2.5
3.1
-
Sack Yards
14.6
22.5
-
Sack %
6.7%
9.6%
-
Pass Plays
37.9
32.2
-
Net Pass Yards
277.0
200.2
-
YPPP
7.3
6.2
Total
-
Total Plays
74.3
62.1
-
Total Yards
455.4
348.9
-
YPPL
6.1
5.6
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.5
-
Int %
1.8%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.4
1.2
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 Massachusetts |
55-21 |
-18.0
W
|
59/28 |
273/93 |
4.6/3.3 |
0/1 |
20/21 |
27/34 |
320/222 |
0/2 |
0/6 |
11.9/5.6 |
593/315 |
6.9/4.6 |
09/08/18 Holy Cross |
62-14 |
0.0
W
|
51/41 |
370/134 |
7.3/3.3 |
1/0 |
16/12 |
20/22 |
240/61 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
11.4/2.7 |
610/195 |
8.5/3.0 |
09/13/18 @ Wake Forest |
41-34 |
-6.5
W
|
40/56 |
237/323 |
5.9/5.8 |
1/0 |
16/20 |
25/45 |
302/189 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
11.6/3.9 |
539/512 |
8.2/4.9 |
09/22/18 @ Purdue |
13-30 |
-7.0
L
|
30/35 |
111/116 |
3.7/3.3 |
0/2 |
15/21 |
29/28 |
118/246 |
4/0 |
4/5 |
3.6/7.5 |
229/362 |
3.6/5.3 |
09/29/18 Temple |
45-35 |
-12.5
L
|
61/31 |
297/200 |
4.9/6.5 |
2/1 |
16/21 |
34/47 |
142/248 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
4.1/5.1 |
439/448 |
4.6/5.6 |
10/06/18 @ No Carolina St. |
23-28 |
+6.5
W
|
22/50 |
135/244 |
6.1/4.9 |
1/2 |
14/25 |
25/34 |
183/308 |
0/2 |
3/0 |
6.5/9.1 |
318/552 |
6.4/6.6 |
10/13/18 Louisville |
38-20 |
-11.0
W
|
57/25 |
267/90 |
4.7/3.6 |
2/0 |
16/19 |
22/35 |
170/159 |
0/1 |
1/6 |
7.4/3.9 |
437/249 |
5.5/3.8 |
10/26/18 Miami Fla |
27-14 |
+3.5
W
|
49/33 |
239/160 |
4.9/4.8 |
0/0 |
17/19 |
30/37 |
200/127 |
1/2 |
1/3 |
6.5/3.2 |
439/287 |
5.5/3.9 |
11/03/18 @ Virginia Tech |
31-21 |
-2.0
W
|
44/36 |
245/123 |
5.6/3.4 |
1/1 |
15/25 |
26/43 |
170/281 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
6.3/6.5 |
415/404 |
5.8/5.1 |
11/10/18 Clemson |
7-27 |
+19.0
L
|
29/28 |
61/141 |
2.1/5.0 |
0/1 |
14/29 |
24/40 |
84/284 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
3.1/6.8 |
145/425 |
2.6/6.1 |
11/17/18 @ Florida St. |
21-22 |
-3.0
L
|
45/33 |
137/168 |
3.0/5.1 |
0/0 |
18/19 |
38/39 |
287/316 |
2/2 |
2/1 |
7.2/7.9 |
424/484 |
5.0/6.6 |
11/24/18 Syracuse |
21-42 |
-7.0
L
|
29/52 |
130/223 |
4.5/4.3 |
2/0 |
17/21 |
37/35 |
234/341 |
2/1 |
3/2 |
5.9/9.2 |
364/564 |
5.3/6.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 @ Troy |
56-20 |
-10.0
W
|
24/38 |
125/173 |
5.2/4.6 |
1/3 |
20/24 |
28/34 |
298/216 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
10.3/5.5 |
423/389 |
8.0/5.1 |
09/08/18 Connecticut |
62-7 |
-31.5
W
|
43/24 |
380/125 |
8.8/5.2 |
0/0 |
25/11 |
33/21 |
418/68 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
12.7/3.1 |
798/193 |
10.5/4.2 |
09/15/18 @ Oklahoma St. |
21-44 |
+2.0
L
|
24/34 |
83/197 |
3.5/5.8 |
1/0 |
39/16 |
56/27 |
331/227 |
0/0 |
7/3 |
5.3/7.6 |
414/424 |
4.8/6.6 |
09/29/18 @ Wyoming |
34-14 |
-17.0
W
|
43/18 |
165/145 |
3.8/8.1 |
0/0 |
29/15 |
43/25 |
342/99 |
0/0 |
2/5 |
7.6/3.3 |
507/244 |
5.8/5.1 |
10/06/18 San Diego St. |
13-19 |
-14.0
L
|
31/36 |
91/180 |
2.9/5.0 |
0/2 |
22/8 |
44/15 |
148/85 |
3/0 |
4/4 |
3.1/4.5 |
239/265 |
3.0/4.8 |
10/13/18 @ Nevada |
31-27 |
-14.5
L
|
38/23 |
148/91 |
3.9/4.0 |
1/2 |
28/23 |
38/41 |
293/273 |
3/1 |
2/1 |
7.3/6.5 |
441/364 |
5.7/5.6 |
10/19/18 Colorado St. |
56-28 |
-24.0
W
|
33/22 |
172/143 |
5.2/6.5 |
0/1 |
23/28 |
27/44 |
295/306 |
0/2 |
4/3 |
9.5/6.5 |
467/449 |
7.3/6.5 |
10/27/18 @ Air Force |
48-38 |
-9.5
W
|
28/47 |
149/226 |
5.3/4.8 |
0/0 |
22/11 |
36/16 |
391/219 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
10.3/11.5 |
540/445 |
8.2/6.7 |
11/03/18 BYU |
21-16 |
-13.5
L
|
35/30 |
118/167 |
3.4/5.6 |
1/3 |
23/19 |
35/28 |
209/236 |
1/0 |
2/7 |
5.6/6.7 |
327/403 |
4.5/6.2 |
11/09/18 Fresno St. |
24-17 |
+2.5
W
|
41/25 |
184/129 |
4.5/5.2 |
0/0 |
24/24 |
30/35 |
266/259 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
8.6/6.8 |
450/388 |
6.3/6.2 |
11/16/18 @ New Mexico |
45-14 |
-21.5
W
|
38/43 |
240/165 |
6.3/3.8 |
0/2 |
17/8 |
27/14 |
209/95 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
7.0/5.9 |
449/260 |
6.6/4.4 |
11/24/18 Utah St. |
33-24 |
-2.5
W
|
42/18 |
216/69 |
5.1/3.8 |
0/1 |
23/29 |
32/47 |
293/354 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
8.4/7.4 |
509/423 |
6.6/6.4 |
12/01/18 Fresno St. |
16-19 |
0.0
L
|
53/30 |
248/124 |
4.7/4.1 |
1/2 |
15/20 |
31/32 |
108/165 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
3.3/4.9 |
356/289 |
4.1/4.5 |