Game Analysis

Washington (-10)  30   Boise State  22

It looks like most of the key players from both teams will play in this game, with the exception of injured WR Ben Ford for Boise (and maybe LT Kage Casey, who declared for the draft but could still play) and CB Tacario Davis for Washington, whose already missed 5 games. It’s possible that Washington stars WR Denzel Boston and RB Jonah Coleman could opt out but head coach Jedd Fisch says he expects every healthy player to play in this game.

Boise State got quarterback Maddux Madsen back for the MWC Championship but Madsen had a down season (just 0.1 yards per pass play better than average) and the Broncos have a worse than average running attack – particularly if extremely positive outliers against Air Force and UNLV (1st meeting) are adjusted for, as they averaged 10.0 yards per rushing play on 59 runs in those two games and just 4.4 yprp in their other 10 games against FBS opponents.

I rate the Boise attack at 0.2 yards per play worse than an average FBS team and the Broncos will struggle to move the ball consistently against a good Washington defense that allowed just 19.4 points per game and 5.0 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. The offenses that Washington faced are is 0.5 yppl better than Boise’s offense. The Broncos faced 3 good defensive teams this season and scored just 7 points in each of those games against South Florida, Notre Dame and San Diego State. They should have more success in this game, as the math projects 344 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Broncos in the perfect scoring conditions of Sofi Stadium.

Washington’s offense is a nice blend of running and precise passing led by accurate sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who completed 70% of his passes in the regular season and averaged 7.5 yards per pass play (against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB. The Huskies also average 5.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp). Boise has a very good pass defense (1.3 yppp better than average) and only Notre Dame averaged more than 6.5 yppp against the Broncos this season. However, the Broncos’ defensive front is soft and allowed an average of 180 ground yards at 5.8 yprp (to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average defense). The Huskies should average around 6 yards per run and I project Williams to average 7.0 yards per pass play in the dome.

Overall, the math favors Washington by 10 points but the Huskies apply to a 19-61-2 ATS big bowl favorite situation. I suggest passing on this game.