Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *UNLV (+3)  34   Boise State  28

UNLV has been disrespected by the market all season and the Rebels are 10-2 ATS even with last week’s 31-37 loss to a red-hot San Jose State team. UNLV is better than Boise State and they’re playing at home for the Mountain West Championship.

The Rebels have been 0.5 yards per play better than average with Jayden Maiava at quarterback since taking over from a struggling Doug Brumfield early in week 4 after Brumfield’s horrible start to the season (3.2 yards per pass play on 48 pass plays). They should be even better in this game as Maiva, who has been 1.7 yppp better than average this season, throws more in competitive games and UNLV struggles to run the ball at times (0.5 yprp worse than average). Boise State’s defense is decent against the run (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average team) but the Broncos have been 0.4 yppp worse than average defending the pass this season and they’ve really been bad against the 3 better than average quarterbacks that they’ve faced, giving up a combined 10.3 yppp to Washington, UCF, and Memphis, who would combine to average 9.0 yppp against an average defense. Maiva has averaged 7.2 yppp or more in every game he’s played except one (6.8 yppp on just 21 passes in a 44-20 win over Hawaii) and I project him to throw for 8.8 yppp in this game. I project 453 yards at 6.6 yppl for the Rebels in this game.

Boise State’s offense has been 0.4 yppl better than average this season but the best of the two quarterbacks that were splitting snaps, Maddux Madsen, is out for the season. Madsen completed 61% of his passes and averaged 7.8 yppp while Taylen Green has completed only 55% of his passes for 6.8 yppp. Green put up good numbers last week against Air Force but it helps to have a screen pass thrown behind the line of scrimmage go for a 75-yard touchdown, which was the difference in an 8-point home win over an Air Force team playing backup quarterbacks. Boise’s offense is just 0.2 yppl better than average with Green behind center.

Green should put up good numbers against a porous UNLV pass defense that is 1.6 yppp worse than average (I project 7.8 yppp) but Boise State has a run-oriented offense, especially with Green at quarterback (82 runs against just 36 pass plays the last two weeks without Madsen), and the Broncos aren’t likely to take full advantage of UNLV’s bad pass defense. UNLV is just 0.1 yprp worse than average defending the run so they’d much rather prefer to face a running team like Boise State. I do think Boise will throw it more in this game than they have the last two weeks with Green as the sole QB (I project 57% run plays instead of the 69% runs in the last two games) and I project the Broncos with 424 yards at 6.4 yppl.

UNLV is not only projected to have a 29-yards edge from the line of scrimmage but the Rebels also have an edge in projected turnovers (0.36 fewer) and are significantly better in special teams with a really good punter and great return and coverage teams (+6.8 in net punting and +2.7  in kickoff yard line) to go along with a potential All-American kicker that’s made 23 of 25 field goals, including 7 of 9 from 40-yards or more. Boise has a good punter and a good place-kicker too but they’re horrible in the return game and don’t cover kickoffs well (+3.2 in net punting but -2.4 yards in average kickoff yard line). Overall, Boise is about average in special teams while UNLV has one of the best special teams units in the nation (+3.7 points per game), which doesn’t seem to be factored into their market rating.

UNLV is clearly the better team and should not be getting points on their home field. UNLV is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.