Game Analysis

SAN DIEGO STATE (-2)  21   Boise State  16

Boise State is without their starting quarterback and their two most productive wide receivers (Ford and Marshall). Both teams are coming off bad losses but I don’t see Boise’s offense having much success with an unproven backup quarterback and a weakened receiving corps against the best defensive team in the conference.

Boise’s offense just average on a national scale with Maddux Madsen behind center while San Diego State’s defense has been 0.7 yards per play better than average, allowing just 14.8 points and 4.3 yppl against FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.0 yppl versus an average defensive team.

Boise’s strong defense (0.5 yppl better than average) also has an advantage in this game (SD State’s offense is -0.2 yppl) but the bigger edge goes to the Aztecs defense against a backup quarterback that managed just 74 yards on 32 pass plays in Boise’s loss to Fresno.

San Diego State would be a Lean if the line gets down to -1.