Boise St.
@ 
San Diego St.
Game Analysis
Lean – Boise State (-6.5) 32 SAN DIEGO STATE 21
Lean – Over (46)
Boise State should score more points than the 26 points projected by the market side and total. The Broncos new offense has been better than average, gaining 401 yards per game at 5.8 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. San Diego State has the reputation of being a good defensive team and they’ve only allowed 25.5 points per game, but that average is deceiving given that the Aztecs have allowed an average of 436 yards and 6.0 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average only 5.5 yppl against an average team (adjusted for facing Ohio mostly without their star QB). I project 6.5 yppl for Boise in this game.
San Diego State has been 0.5 yppl worse than average in their new offense, which apparently doesn’t suit incumbent quarterback Jalen Mayden, who was great last season but has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play. Boise gave up a lot of yards to elite offensive teams Washington and UCF, who combined for 1078 yards at 8.6 yppl, but the Broncos limited a decent North Dakota offense to just 3.2 yppl last week and they should be able to keep the Aztecs to below average numbers.
My math favors Boise by 7.6 points, with a total of 52.8 points with good weather expected, and the Broncos apply to a 68-18-1 ATS situation that plays on road favorites with losing records. Boise State is a Lean at -7 or less and I’ll Lean Over 47 or less.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Boise St.
- San Diego St.
Rush
- Run Plays 32.3 28.7
- Run Yards 158.3 148.3
- YPRP 4.9 5.2
Pass
- Pass Comp 19.7 21.7
- Pass Att 35.3 32.3
- Comp % 55.7% 67.0%
- Pass Yards 251.3 296.3
- Sacks 1.3 2.3
- Sack Yards 8.7 16.7
- Sack % 3.6% 6.7%
- Pass Plays 36.7 34.7
- Net Pass Yards 242.7 279.7
- YPPP 6.6 8.1
Total
- Total Plays 69.0 63.3
- Total Yards 401.0 428.0
- YPPL 5.8 6.8
TO
- Int 1.3 0.7
- Int % 3.8% 2.1%
- Fumbles 0.7 0.7
- Turnovers 2.0 1.3
- Points 25.7 30.7