Game Analysis

Cactus Bowl

Tuesday, December 27 – 7:15 pm Pacific

Strong Opinion – Baylor (+7 ½)  32   Boise State  35

If you’re into being contrary in your betting philosophy this is the game for you. Baylor has lost 6 consecutive games, they’re without their starting quarterback and their #2 rusher, and the Bears’ head coach is going back into retirement after this game is over. Boise State, meanwhile, is 10-2 but it’s certainly reasonable to think the Broncos aren’t that thrilled to be in this bowl game, as a win over Air Force in their final regular season game would have led to a spot in their conference championship game and could have led to a more prestigious game against a better opponent. In fact, December bowl (i.e. non-major bowl games) favorites of more than 7 points that lost their previous game are just 14-42-3 ATS over the years. It’s hard to be focused for weeks of practices when you’re not excited about the game you’re set to play in, which is what that trend is all about. Baylor, meanwhile, applies to a 37-5-1 ATS situation that plays on bowl underdogs with horrible spread records and Baylor’s talent level is every bit, or better, than Boise’s talent level.

The loss of starting quarterback Seth Russell is not catastrophic, as Russell was not having a good season – completing just 54.7% of his passes while being barely better than average on a compensated yards per pass play perspective. Backup quarterback Zach Smith has been a bit worse, as he averaged 6.5 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Smith was 0.3 yppp worse than average in his 3 starts at the end of the regular season, which are the numbers I’ll use in my math model. I also adjusted Baylor’s running numbers downward. Not because Shock Linwood is out, as his 5.4 ypr is actually lower than the 5.6 ypr the other two running backs have averaged, but rather because Russell was a good runner who contributed 573 yards on 80 runs. Overall, Baylor’s offensive rating goes from +0.1 yppl to 0.2 yppl worse than average with Smith at quarterback. Smith is more interception prone but he is not likely to throw 2 interceptions, which he averaged in those 3 starts (Boise’s defense only averaged 0.5 picks per game and I project 1.2 interceptions for Smith in this game).

Boise State’s defense allowed only 22.7 points and 5.2 yppl this season and that unit rates at 0.4 yppl better than average after adjusting for opposing offenses the Broncos have faced. My math projects only 5.2 yppl for Baylor but the Bears run a lot of plays due to a fast tempo and a habit of going for it on 4^th downs to extend drives. The math projects 472 total yards for the Bears, which should net them around 30 points.

Boise State’s big play offense (16.2 yards per reception) has averaged 35.6 points and 480 yards per game at 7.2 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and the math projects 515 yards at 6.8 yppl against a mediocre Baylor defense that allowed 5.9 yppl against teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. The defense looked a lot worse when they got to Big 12 play but that unit allowed 6.3 yppl in conference play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average team, which is only 0.1 yppl worse than their season rating.

Overall the math favors Boise State by 8 ½ points with a total of 67 ½ points, so the Broncos certainly deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown. However, if a spread were put on this game before the season started Baylor would have been favored and they do have the talent to win this game. Teams that underperform during the season, as Baylor has, have a tendency to be good bets in their bowl game and the bowl trends I quoted at the beginning of this analysis certainly reflect that. Betting on Boise seems like the obvious bet given how Baylor’s season has gone so far but being contrary is the best course of action in this game and I’ll consider Baylor a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ points or more and a lean at +7. I have no opinion on the total.