Game Analysis
TEXAS (+3.5) 34 Baylor 33
I was a bit surprised by my math model favoring Texas by 1.5 points but Baylor’s offense doesn’t look particularly strong when taking into account the defenses that they’ve faced, as the Bears have averaged their 6.6 yards per play (when QB Russell is in the game) against FBS teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. The Texas defense has been really inconsistent, but they’ve played relatively better the last two weeks and their average rating is enough to beat an average performance by Baylor. I like the Longhorns plus the points.
Rush
-
Run Plays
50.4
43.6
-
Run Yards
288.0
185.0
-
YPRP
5.8
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.2
16.6
-
Pass Att
33.8
33.4
-
Comp %
53.8%
49.7%
-
Pass Yards
267.2
186.8
-
Sacks
0.8
2.6
-
Sack Yards
3.8
13.8
-
Sack %
2.3%
7.2%
-
Pass Plays
34.6
36.0
-
Net Pass Yards
263.4
173.0
-
YPPP
7.6
4.8
Total
-
Total Plays
85.0
79.6
-
Total Yards
555.2
371.8
-
YPPL
6.5
4.7
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.6
-
Int %
2.4%
4.8%
-
Fumbles
0.6
1.2
-
Turnovers
1.4
2.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
45.3
41.6
-
Run Yards
227.1
177.7
-
YPRP
5.3
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.7
19.7
-
Pass Att
32.1
30.1
-
Comp %
64.4%
65.4%
-
Pass Yards
255.3
263.6
-
Sacks
2.0
3.6
-
Sack Yards
11.0
25.3
-
Sack %
5.9%
10.6%
-
Pass Plays
34.1
33.7
-
Net Pass Yards
244.3
238.3
-
YPPP
7.2
7.1
Total
-
Total Plays
79.4
75.3
-
Total Yards
482.4
441.3
-
YPPL
6.1
5.9
TO
-
Int
0.9
0.4
-
Int %
2.7%
1.4%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.9
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/16 Northwestern State |
55-7 |
0.0
W
|
43/38 |
275/60 |
6.4/1.6 |
1/0 |
19/5 |
29/19 |
223/25 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
7.7/1.2 |
498/85 |
6.9/1.4 |
| 09/10/16 SMU |
40-13 |
-32.0
L
|
55/36 |
278/178 |
5.1/4.9 |
1/1 |
26/17 |
48/44 |
260/227 |
2/3 |
0/1 |
5.4/5.0 |
538/405 |
5.2/5.0 |
| 09/16/16 @ Rice |
38-10 |
-31.0
L
|
53/40 |
297/238 |
5.6/6.0 |
0/1 |
23/9 |
41/27 |
338/21 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
8.0/0.7 |
635/259 |
6.7/3.8 |
| 09/24/16 Oklahoma St. |
35-24 |
-8.0
W
|
35/50 |
156/242 |
4.5/4.8 |
1/3 |
17/27 |
28/46 |
343/253 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
11.8/5.1 |
499/495 |
7.8/5.0 |
| 10/01/16 @ Iowa St. |
45-42 |
-17.0
L
|
61/50 |
470/224 |
7.7/4.5 |
0/0 |
12/17 |
22/23 |
177/256 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
7.7/10.7 |
647/480 |
7.7/6.5 |
| 10/15/16 Kansas |
49-7 |
-34.5
W
|
48/42 |
258/112 |
5.4/2.7 |
1/1 |
13/13 |
30/27 |
199/108 |
0/4 |
1/5 |
6.4/3.4 |
457/220 |
5.8/3.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/04/16 Notre Dame |
50-47 |
+3.5
W
|
59/43 |
237/225 |
4.0/5.2 |
0/0 |
16/17 |
27/30 |
280/219 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
10.4/6.6 |
517/444 |
6.0/5.8 |
| 09/10/16 UTEP |
41-7 |
-30.0
W
|
42/35 |
189/176 |
4.5/5.0 |
1/1 |
23/14 |
28/21 |
228/35 |
0/0 |
3/5 |
7.4/1.3 |
417/211 |
5.7/3.5 |
| 09/17/16 @ California |
43-50 |
-7.0
L
|
48/35 |
320/152 |
6.7/4.3 |
0/0 |
23/27 |
39/40 |
248/366 |
2/0 |
3/3 |
5.9/8.5 |
568/518 |
6.3/6.6 |
| 10/01/16 @ Oklahoma St. |
31-49 |
+2.5
L
|
48/40 |
337/183 |
7.0/4.6 |
0/0 |
21/19 |
33/28 |
235/372 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
6.9/12.0 |
572/555 |
7.0/7.8 |
| 10/08/16 Oklahoma |
40-45 |
+10.0
W
|
41/54 |
210/295 |
5.1/5.5 |
1/2 |
19/22 |
36/31 |
227/383 |
1/2 |
4/1 |
5.7/12.0 |
437/678 |
5.4/7.9 |
| 10/15/16 Iowa St. |
27-6 |
-14.0
W
|
46/35 |
211/142 |
4.6/4.1 |
1/1 |
26/19 |
38/34 |
296/138 |
1/0 |
0/8 |
7.8/3.3 |
507/280 |
6.0/3.6 |
| 10/22/16 @ Kansas St. |
21-24 |
-1.5
L
|
33/49 |
163/248 |
4.9/5.1 |
0/2 |
17/20 |
24/27 |
196/155 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
7.3/5.3 |
359/403 |
6.0/5.2 |
Texas