Game Analysis

Lean – Over (59.5) – Baylor (-4)  35   Louisiana State  31

Baylor was a good team based on their metrics when they were sitting at 2-4 for the season and the Bears proved the math right as they won their last 6 games while going 5-0-1 ATS. The math would have favored Baylor by 2 points at the end of the regular season and favors them by more after factoring in the players not playing for LSU.

Baylor’s offense struggled the first two weeks of the season with Dequan Finn at quarterback, but the attack took off when Sawyer Robertson was inserted at quarterback in week 3. In the final 10 games of the regular season the Bears averaged 35.9 points per game on over 450 yards of offense at 6.7 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). The only players absent from the depth chart are Finn and wide receivers Hal Presley and Ketron Jackson, whose combined 7.5 yards per target on 74 targets was lower than the rest of the receivers, who combined to average 9.0 YPT.

The Tigers allowed just 24.0 points per game against FBS teams, but they weren’t that good. LSU’s defense was only 0.3 yppl better than average this season, surrendering 6.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl to an average team. The defense did a good job defending the pass (6.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.3 yppp against an average defense) but the Tigers struggled to stop the run – allowing 5.9 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.5 yprp). Baylor has two good running backs that combined for 1612 yards at 6.0 ypr and the Bears should top 6.0 yards per run in this game. LSU is thin in the secondary, as starting safeties Sage Ryan (transferred) and Major Burns (opt out) aren’t playing while backups Allen and Jackson are injured. That status of NFL bound LB Greg Penn is up in the air, as there’s been no word on if he’ll opt out or not. I value the LSU defections as worth 2.4 points (not including Penn, who I assume will play for now but has been injured and could sit out).

LSU’s offense wasn’t nearly as good this season as it was with Jaylen Daniels in 2023, but the Tigers were still 1.0 yppl better than average offensively with Garrett Nussmeier (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Nussmeier is returning for another season, but he’ll be missing 3 of his top 4 pass-catchers in this game, a WRs Kyren Lacy and CJ Daniels have opted out along with TE Mason Taylor. Losing Taylor shouldn’t be much of a problem, as his 6.7 yards per target on 76 targets against FBS teams is not hard to replace. Lacy and Daniels both averaged 8.4 YPT against FBS teams on a combined 144 targets. Aaron Anderson, who averaged 10.2 YPT on 71 targets, will see more balls coming his way, which should offset the losses, and Chris Hilton, who missed the first half of the season, should be healthier now and ready to take on a bigger role. Hilton averaged 8.7 YPT on just 15 targets but has the talent to replace Daniels’ 8.4 YPT. I really don’t see much of a drop in production from the receiver group, which tends to have quality depth, as Lacy and Daniels were nothing special and Anderson is by far the best of the group and will get more targets. The avalable receivers combined for 8.8 YPT on 120 targets, which is better than the guys that have left the team. The offense will be missing both tackles, which could become an issue in pass protection. There is good talent waiting to play but depth now becomes an issue, and I rate the losses of the two offensive linemen at 1.7 points.

The Bears’ defense will likely be without part-time starting safety Corey Gordon, who is in the transfer portal, but his role would have been as a backup with starter Carl Williams back healthy after missing the final 3 games (he’s been spotted practicing) and is atop the bowl depth chart. Steve Linton, who is tied for 2nd on the team in TFL and missed the last couple of games, is also back at practice and expected to play. That unit rats at 0.4 yppl better than average and should get back to playing at a good level after struggling in their final against Kansas with some starters out.

The math favors Baylor by 5.9 points with 65.8 total points (6.9 and 66.6 total points if LSU LB Penn doesn’t play) but LSU applies to a 63-26-2 ATS bowl situation. I’ll pass the side but Lean Over at 60 or less.