Game Analysis

Baylor (-4)  23   Air Force  20

I think Baylor by 4 points would have been the right number if this game weren’t being played in 15 to 25 mph winds, which are expected on Thursday night. Wind affects the passing game negatively and that does not really affect an Air Force team that’s going to run the ball about 90% of the time. As it turns out, the wind affect is projected to hurt Baylor’s offense by about a point more than it will affect the Air Force offense.

Baylor was just 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average FBS team) and that unit is up against a solid Air Force defense that allowed just 257 total yards and 13.3 points per game while giving up just 4.9 yppl with their starters in the game. The Falcons were only 0.1 yppl better than average but they possess the ball so much on offense that opponents had just 50 plays per game to work with and I project just 310 yards on 54 plays for Baylor in this game (5.7 yppl).

The Air Force option attack averaged 404 yards per game at 6.0 yppl this season while rating at 0.3 yards per rushing play better than average and 1.6 yards per pass play better than average. Overall, the Falcons were 0.2 yppl worse than average because they ran the ball 89% of the time. It may not be so easy to run against a good Baylor defensive front that was 0.8 yprp better than average in the regular season (4.7 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average defense). Of course, defending the run well doesn’t mean that a team can defend the option and a lot of how they perform in this game depends on how intently they prepared. You’d think that having extra time to prepare for a bowl game would help teams defend the option better but the 3 military teams, who all run the option offense, are 38-15 ATS in bowl games going back to 1980. The math projects just 4.9 yppl for Air Force by they are likely to run around 10 more plays than Baylor’s offense.

Overall, the math favors the Bears by 3.1 points with 42.3 total points. I’ll pass.