Game Analysis
TOLEDO (-19.5) 36 Ball State 22
Note: I had previously posted a predicted score of Toledo 41 Ball State 24
Toledo QB Mitchell Guadagni is now OUT and Ball State starting QB Riley Neal is also out. Ball State’s Drew Plitt rates at 2.5 yards per pass play worse than average in his career (on 109 pass plays not counting snaps versus opponent’s backups in blowouts), which is 0.7 yppp worse than Ball State’s passing rating this season. However, Toledo without Guadagni is also a downgrade, as not only is his passing better than that of Eli Peters (47.1% on 102 passes this season) but he also leads the team in rushing (not including sacks).
My math now favors Toledo by just 15 points with a total of 58 points and Ball State applies to a 54-20-2 ATS big road underdog situation. I lean with Ball State and Under.
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.6
42.6
-
Run Yards
148.4
220.0
-
YPRP
4.5
5.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.1
19.9
-
Pass Att
41.1
30.4
-
Comp %
56.2%
65.4%
-
Pass Yards
229.6
216.9
-
Sacks
2.0
2.1
-
Sack Yards
13.5
13.6
-
Sack %
4.6%
6.6%
-
Pass Plays
43.1
32.5
-
Net Pass Yards
216.1
203.3
-
YPPP
5.0
6.3
Total
-
Total Plays
78.8
75.1
-
Total Yards
378.0
436.9
-
YPPL
4.8
5.8
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.8
-
Int %
1.8%
2.5%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.4
36.3
-
Run Yards
202.0
202.9
-
YPRP
5.8
5.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
14.0
21.6
-
Pass Att
27.7
34.3
-
Comp %
50.5%
62.9%
-
Pass Yards
197.4
285.4
-
Sacks
2.7
2.0
-
Sack Yards
16.6
11.4
-
Sack %
8.9%
5.5%
-
Pass Plays
30.4
36.3
-
Net Pass Yards
180.9
274.0
-
YPPP
5.9
7.6
Total
-
Total Plays
67.9
72.6
-
Total Yards
399.4
488.3
-
YPPL
5.9
6.7
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.7
-
Int %
2.6%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/30/18 Central Connecticut State |
42-6 |
-18.5
W
|
46/37 |
323/185 |
7.0/5.0 |
1/1 |
28/14 |
36/28 |
336/111 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
9.3/3.8 |
659/296 |
8.0/4.5 |
| 09/08/18 @ Notre Dame |
16-24 |
+34.5
W
|
45/35 |
176/146 |
3.9/4.2 |
0/0 |
23/17 |
50/31 |
174/272 |
2/3 |
1/4 |
3.4/7.8 |
350/418 |
3.6/6.0 |
| 09/15/18 @ Indiana |
10-38 |
+14.0
L
|
36/44 |
216/255 |
6.0/5.8 |
0/1 |
14/24 |
28/32 |
127/202 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
4.1/6.3 |
343/457 |
5.1/6.0 |
| 09/22/18 Western Kentucky |
20-28 |
-2.5
L
|
27/38 |
144/181 |
5.3/4.8 |
0/0 |
27/25 |
45/35 |
278/244 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
6.0/6.8 |
422/425 |
5.8/5.7 |
| 09/29/18 Kent State |
52-24 |
-7.5
W
|
40/36 |
183/172 |
4.6/4.8 |
1/2 |
32/30 |
52/44 |
427/286 |
1/1 |
2/5 |
7.9/5.8 |
610/458 |
6.5/5.4 |
| 10/06/18 Northern Ill |
16-24 |
+3.0
L
|
38/40 |
148/253 |
3.9/6.3 |
1/0 |
32/18 |
56/29 |
245/117 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
4.2/3.7 |
393/370 |
4.1/5.1 |
| 10/13/18 @ Central Mich |
24-23 |
+2.5
W
|
46/48 |
187/277 |
4.1/5.8 |
1/0 |
20/11 |
27/23 |
170/111 |
0/0 |
5/2 |
5.3/4.4 |
357/388 |
4.6/5.3 |
| 10/20/18 Eastern Mich |
20-42 |
+3.0
L
|
32/43 |
150/174 |
4.7/4.0 |
1/0 |
21/22 |
39/28 |
157/251 |
1/0 |
0/2 |
4.0/8.4 |
307/425 |
4.3/5.8 |
| 10/25/18 @ Ohio |
14-52 |
+10.0
L
|
21/57 |
91/411 |
4.3/7.2 |
2/0 |
16/12 |
32/21 |
151/143 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
4.4/6.8 |
242/554 |
4.4/7.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 Virginia Military |
66-3 |
-45.5
W
|
43/27 |
225/96 |
5.2/3.6 |
0/1 |
22/29 |
32/47 |
378/149 |
0/2 |
2/4 |
11.1/2.9 |
603/245 |
7.8/3.1 |
| 09/15/18 Miami Fla |
24-49 |
+10.5
L
|
32/49 |
137/277 |
4.3/5.7 |
0/0 |
13/13 |
23/23 |
197/205 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
7.3/8.9 |
334/482 |
5.7/6.7 |
| 09/22/18 Nevada |
63-44 |
-10.5
W
|
43/34 |
245/270 |
5.7/7.9 |
1/1 |
16/29 |
25/50 |
215/314 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
7.7/6.2 |
460/584 |
6.5/6.9 |
| 09/29/18 @ Fresno St. |
27-49 |
+9.5
L
|
35/36 |
166/193 |
4.7/5.4 |
0/0 |
15/24 |
31/32 |
175/363 |
1/1 |
5/1 |
4.9/11.0 |
341/556 |
4.8/8.1 |
| 10/06/18 Bowling Green |
52-36 |
-20.5
L
|
43/29 |
291/192 |
6.8/6.6 |
0/1 |
17/18 |
35/34 |
184/289 |
0/0 |
0/0 |
5.3/8.5 |
475/481 |
6.1/7.6 |
| 10/13/18 @ Eastern Mich |
26-28 |
-3.0
L
|
47/35 |
256/246 |
5.4/7.0 |
0/0 |
12/17 |
27/23 |
120/168 |
1/0 |
5/2 |
3.8/6.7 |
376/414 |
4.8/6.9 |
| 10/20/18 Buffalo |
17-31 |
-2.5
L
|
27/42 |
167/166 |
6.2/4.0 |
2/0 |
7/25 |
21/46 |
128/303 |
2/3 |
2/5 |
5.6/5.9 |
295/469 |
5.9/5.0 |
| 10/25/18 @ Western Mich |
51-24 |
+5.0
W
|
35/29 |
268/156 |
7.7/5.4 |
0/1 |
18/25 |
32/32 |
247/276 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
7.7/7.5 |
515/432 |
7.7/6.5 |
Ball St.
@ 
Toledo