Game Analysis

GEORGIA STATE (-4 ½)  29   Ball State  26

Ball State is likely to struggle this season under first year head coach Mike Neu despite having 15 returning starters. Returning experience and a new coach should start the turnaround for the Cardinals, who had back-to-back strong seasons in 2012 (9 wins) and 2013 (10 wins). But, it’s a long hill to climb for a team that was outgained by 146 yards per game last season.

Georgia State went from 0-12 to 1-11 to a bowl game last season but it will be a challenge to improve this season without 2 year starting quarterback Nick Arbuckle, who had a very productive final season in which he averaged 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average QB). The pass attack won’t be nearly as good without Arbuckle and the rushing attack is among the worst in the nation (1.4 yards per rushing play worse than average last season), so improving on their modest 27 points per game is not likely. The Georgia State defense does figure to be better with 9 starters returning from a unit that surrendered 5.4 yppl last season to a slate of opponents that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. That’s very good by Sun Belt standards and my ratings project only 4.8 yppl for Ball State in this game. Georgia State is projected to win this game by 7 points based on my ratings but Ball State applies to a 41-4 ATS week 1 revenge situation the is based on last year’s 19-31 home loss to the Panthers. That situation is too strong to go against but the line value is on the other side. I’ll pass.