Game Analysis

Army (-7.5)  20   Navy  10

Teams that run the option offense and face it every day in practice tend to be the best at defending the option offense and games between Army, Navy, and Air Force have gone 40-9-3 Under since 2004. The Army-Navy game has gone Under the total 15 consecutive years. The market keeps driving the total down on these games and they continue to go under. I project 33 total points after adjusting for the tendency for option teams to defend the option well (games between two option teams are about 6 points lower scoring than the math would predict). However, be careful here, as the total has already been adjusted significantly lower than it would normally be and despite the 15 straight unders in this series, 8 of those 15 games have totaled 37 points or more (although just 1 of 5 have totaled 37 points or more when the total is less than 47 points).

My math model projects just 36 points before adjusting for the tendency for two option teams to be lower scoring than projected. So, I’d still lean a bit towards the under despite the obvious adjustment to the total. I would also prefer Army but it’s not worth playing anything on unless the line comes down to -7, in which case I’d lean with the Cadets.