Game Analysis
Air Force (-17.5) 23 Army 6
Teams that run the option are usually best at defending the option because they see it every day in practice. That has resulted in games between Air Force, Navy, and Army being 52-16-3 Under. That trend gets bet every time and the oddsmakers set the total lower than they normally would and it still goes down (the total on this game went from 36 down to 32 points).
Last season all 3 games between the military schools was under in regulation despite the market betting the total down (Army-Navy was 10-10 before OT led to the game going over) and the Navy-Air Force game two weeks ago ended 17-6 for another under. You’re paying a premium now to follow that trend but I certainly don’t want to go against it and in this case I think the total should be 30 points (based on the difference between results of games between the 3 military academies and the math predictions of what the total would normally be).
Rush
-
Run Plays
44.9
35.9
-
Run Yards
192.4
208.1
-
YPRP
4.3
5.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
7.9
14.3
-
Pass Att
16.6
22.9
-
Comp %
47.4%
62.5%
-
Pass Yards
104.4
186.9
-
Sacks
1.9
1.0
-
Sack Yards
12.0
5.4
-
Sack %
10.1%
4.2%
-
Pass Plays
18.4
23.9
-
Net Pass Yards
92.4
181.4
-
YPPP
5.0
7.6
Total
-
Total Plays
63.3
59.7
-
Total Yards
284.9
389.6
-
YPPL
4.5
6.5
TO
-
Int
1.4
0.6
-
Int %
8.6%
2.5%
-
Fumbles
1.3
0.3
-
Turnovers
2.7
0.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
57.3
23.5
-
Run Yards
319.5
95.8
-
YPRP
5.6
4.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
3.7
18.0
-
Pass Att
5.3
29.7
-
Comp %
68.9%
60.7%
-
Pass Yards
67.5
192.5
-
Sacks
0.7
2.5
-
Sack Yards
3.2
17.3
-
Sack %
11.2%
7.8%
-
Pass Plays
6.0
32.2
-
Net Pass Yards
64.3
175.2
-
YPPP
10.7
5.4
Total
-
Total Plays
63.3
55.7
-
Total Yards
383.8
271.0
-
YPPL
6.1
4.9
TO
-
Int
0.0
0.5
-
Int %
0.0%
1.7%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.3
-
Turnovers
0.5
0.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 @ UL Monroe |
13-17 |
-9.0
L
|
49/31 |
187/220 |
3.8/7.1 |
3/0 |
5/14 |
11/30 |
111/88 |
2/2 |
1/1 |
9.3/2.8 |
298/308 |
4.9/5.0 |
| 09/09/23 Delaware State |
57-0 |
0.0
W
|
43/32 |
292/72 |
6.8/2.3 |
1/2 |
11/20 |
15/34 |
238/209 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
15.9/5.8 |
530/281 |
9.1/4.1 |
| 09/15/23 @ UTSA |
37-29 |
+7.0
W
|
63/21 |
258/123 |
4.1/5.9 |
0/1 |
8/16 |
18/24 |
188/186 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
10.4/7.4 |
446/309 |
5.5/6.7 |
| 09/23/23 @ Syracuse |
16-29 |
+13.0
T
|
42/33 |
149/179 |
3.5/5.4 |
0/0 |
9/21 |
21/26 |
49/235 |
2/1 |
4/2 |
2.0/8.4 |
198/414 |
3.0/6.8 |
| 10/07/23 Boston College |
24-27 |
-3.0
L
|
33/58 |
151/316 |
4.6/5.4 |
1/0 |
10/4 |
13/9 |
109/62 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
8.4/5.6 |
260/378 |
5.7/5.5 |
| 10/14/23 Troy |
0-19 |
+5.5
L
|
44/39 |
213/222 |
4.8/5.7 |
3/1 |
9/10 |
18/21 |
39/215 |
1/0 |
6/0 |
1.6/10.2 |
252/437 |
3.7/7.3 |
| 10/21/23 @ LSU |
0-62 |
+32.5
L
|
42/32 |
158/166 |
3.8/5.2 |
1/0 |
6/18 |
15/27 |
35/363 |
3/0 |
1/1 |
2.2/13.0 |
193/529 |
3.3/8.8 |
| 10/28/23 Massachusetts |
14-21 |
-9.5
L
|
41/37 |
231/231 |
5.6/6.2 |
1/0 |
8/17 |
20/23 |
116/121 |
2/0 |
1/0 |
5.5/5.3 |
347/352 |
5.6/5.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 Robert Morris |
42-7 |
0.0
W
|
56/23 |
379/65 |
6.8/2.8 |
1/2 |
2/18 |
3/24 |
95/99 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
31.7/3.8 |
474/164 |
8.0/3.3 |
| 09/09/23 @ Sam Houston State |
13-3 |
-13.5
L
|
55/26 |
246/74 |
4.5/2.8 |
1/0 |
1/8 |
3/14 |
3/6 |
0/0 |
2/4 |
0.6/0.3 |
249/80 |
4.2/1.8 |
| 09/15/23 Utah St. |
39-21 |
-9.5
W
|
63/21 |
351/83 |
5.6/4.0 |
0/1 |
3/20 |
4/35 |
77/219 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
15.4/5.5 |
428/302 |
6.3/5.0 |
| 09/22/23 @ San Jose St. |
45-20 |
-3.5
W
|
72/16 |
402/116 |
5.6/7.3 |
0/0 |
2/24 |
2/35 |
28/232 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
14.0/6.6 |
430/348 |
5.8/6.8 |
| 09/30/23 San Diego St. |
49-10 |
-10.5
W
|
49/29 |
292/112 |
6.0/3.9 |
0/0 |
6/13 |
7/24 |
189/115 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
27.0/4.6 |
481/227 |
8.6/4.2 |
| 10/14/23 Wyoming |
34-27 |
-11.0
L
|
52/32 |
358/129 |
6.9/4.0 |
2/0 |
6/15 |
9/25 |
58/198 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
6.4/7.1 |
416/327 |
6.8/5.5 |
| 10/21/23 @ Navy |
17-6 |
-10.0
W
|
44/29 |
143/46 |
3.3/1.6 |
1/0 |
4/15 |
5/29 |
148/82 |
0/2 |
2/4 |
21.1/2.5 |
291/128 |
5.7/2.1 |
| 10/28/23 @ Colorado St. |
30-13 |
-14.0
W
|
53/17 |
268/61 |
5.1/3.6 |
0/1 |
4/28 |
7/45 |
31/281 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
3.9/6.0 |
299/342 |
4.9/5.3 |
Army
vs 
Air Force