Game Analysis

Texas A&M (-6)  28   Arkansas  19

Both of these teams are very good defensively, as I rate both units at 1.1 yards per play better than average. However, the Texas A&M offense and special teams give the Aggies the advantage. The Arkansas offense averaged only 5.1 yards per play the first two weeks against Louisiana Tech and TCU and the 7.1 yppl they racked up on Texas State isn’t all that impressive given that the Bobcats would allow 7.0 yppl on the road to an average offensive team. Arkansas’s rushing attack is vastly overrated, as the Hogs have averaged just 4.6 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) and Austin Allen has been just barely better than average after adjusted for schedule strength.

The Aggies’ offense, meanwhile, has averaged 6.8 yppl with starting quarterback Trevor Knight on the field against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. Knight has been barely better than average (6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB) but the A&M rushing attack has averaged 248 yards at 6.7 yards per rushing play. The Aggies have proven that they can move the ball against better than average defensive teams, as they averaged 5.9 yppl in games against UCLA and Auburn – teams that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average team.

Texas A&M is the better offensive team and is more capable of moving the ball against a good defense and the Aggies are also likely to have better field position thanks to their superior special teams. My ratings favor A&M by 9 points.