Game Analysis

Arkansas State (-3)  29   Northern Illinois  28

The Northern Illinois offense rates at 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season with Rocky Lombardi at quarterback but the pass game has been worse since week 6 without WR Kacper Rutkiewicz, who averaged a team best 8.2 yards per target through the first 6 games (the rest of the wide receivers were averaging 6.2 YPT through 6 games). The Huskies’ rushing attack is the strength of the offense and Antario Brown (1164 yards at 6.2 ypr) should have a strong game against a soft Arkansas State defensive front that has allowed 201 rush yards per game at 5.6 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp). Arkansas State’s defense is equally bad defending the pass and rated at 0.7 yppl worse than average this season overall (-0.8 yppl without LB Mackey, who transferred). NIU is without their starting C, who decided to transfer, but WR Trayvon Rudolph took his name out of the portal and is expected to play. I project 413 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Huskies in this game.

The Arkansas State offense was horrible the first three games with Shrout and Dailey at quarterback, but Jaylen Raynor upgraded the position starting in week 4 and the Red Wolves have averaged 6.3 yppl and 33.2 points per game in Raynor’s 9 starts. I rate that attack as average on a national scale after adjusting for outliers and strength of opposing defenses. NIU only allowed 21.2 points per game, and they are 0.3 yppl worse than average after adjusting for the mostly bad offensive teams that they faced (0.4 yppl worse than average without pass-rusher Gumbs, who transferred). I project 392 yards at 6.2 yppl for Arkansas State in this game.

Arkansas State has a significant advantage in special teams and the math favors the Red Wolves by 0.7 points with 56.3 total points.