Game Analysis

Lean – NEVADA (-1.5)  28   Arkansas State  24

Best Bet – Under (60.5): Now a Lean Under at current line.

Saturday, 10:15 am Pacific

I’ve won numerous Best Bets or Strong Opinion on Nevada going under the total and the Wolf Pack have gone under in 6 of their last 8 games (I didn’t have an under play on the two that went over). I really don’t know why the odds makers have continued to make the totals on Nevada games too high but I was happy to take the value with the Under (60.5) in this game for a 2-Star Best Bet. This game no longer qualifies as a Best Bet with the total now at 56.5 points but I still lean under even with very good weather expected.

Nevada averaged 29.6 points and 5.9 yards per play against FBS opponents this season but the Wolf Pack faced a schedule of teams that would allow 31.3 points and 6.3 yppl to an average team, and that attack is 0.3 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Ty Gangi at quarterback (he missed the Fresno game). Arkansas State allowed 26.9 points and 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 25.4 points and 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team so the battle between Nevada’s offense and the Red Wolves’ defense is a wash. The math model projects 398 total yards at 5.7 yards per play for Nevada.

Arkansas State averaged 30.3 points and 6.1 yppl this season against FBS teams that would allow 32.9 points and 6.2 yppl to an average opponent, so the Red Wolves are actually a bit below average offensively. Nevada, meanwhile, is a god defensive team that yielded just 5.3 yppl to a schedule of FBS teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. The 28.9 points per game that Nevada allowed (against teams that would average 27.2 points) is skewed by the 63 points allowed in the Toledo game, which is a fluke given that 460 total yards does not equate to 63 points. Nevada’s median points allowed is 25 points, which is more in line with their yards per play numbers. Arkansas State is projected to gain 393 yards at just 5.3 yppl.

The projected yards (791) and yards per play (5.48) are both less than the national average and thus this game should be projected under the national average of 56.4 total points. Making this game even lower scoring is the special teams units, which all favor the defense. Arkansas State is a bit below average in average starting field position on kickoffs and their kickoff coverage team is excellent (1.7 yards better than average). The Red Wolves also have a great punt team (39.5 net yards) and a terrible punt return team (39.8 opponent’s net punt), which makes for worse field position for their offense and their opponent’s offense. Nevada, meanwhile, is below average in kickoff returns, better than average in kickoff coverage, and has a net punt average of 39.5 yards while their opponent’s net punting average is 40.0 yards. Those punt averages are higher because Nevada played a lot of games in high-altitude but I’ve adjusted for that and the punt numbers still favor the defenses.

The special teams yardage favoring the defenses is worth a couple of points and overall the math model projects just 52 total points in this game even with the good weather. The Under is now out of Best Bet and even Strong Opinion range but I’d still lean under 55 points or more.

The math only favors Nevada by ½ a point but the Wolf Pack apply to a 55-17 ATS bowl situation while Arkansas State applies to a 27-64 ATS bowl situation that plays against teams on a 3 game or more spread win streak. I’ll lean with Nevada at -2.5 or less.