Game Analysis

Lean – Bowling Green (-7.5)  34   Arkansas State  22

I was surprised to see that Arkansas State was in a bowl game because they’ve been a bad team in my mind the whole season. But, I guess 7-5 gets you a bowl even if you were outscored by 7.4 points per game (they were a lucky 6-0 in games decided by 7 points or less). Bowling Green isn’t a good team either but they’re good enough to beat Arkansas State.

Bowling Green’s offense was 0.3 yards per play worse than average this season but veteran quarterback Connor Bazelak rarely throws interceptions (just 5 this season and 12 in 23 games since last season). Star RB Terion Stewart entered the transfer portal and has committed to Virginia Tech, although he’s also stated that he’s going to play in this bowl game, which I suppose he can if he just committed to sign with the Hokies rather than actually signing with them. Stewart averaged 5.6 ypr on 160 runs, but he got 161 yards on 14 runs against FCS team Fordham while averaging a modest 5.0 ypr against FBS teams. The Falcons’ two backup running backs combined for 5.0 ypr against FBS teams and the run offense was relatively better in the two games that Stewart missed this season.

Arkansas State’s defense is horrible. The Red Wolves gave up an average of 467 yards per game at 7.0 yards per play against teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The defense has been worse without DE Jayden Jones, who has missed most of the last 5 games with injury (and has now transferred) and it’s probable that star CB Dontay Joyner will not play after entering his name in the portal and committing to Maryland. Star TE Harold Fannin will be headed to the NFL, but he says that he intends to play in this game and he is listed on the depth chart that was released on Monday morning. Bowling Green should have a good day offensively and I project 440 yards at 6.9 yppl for the Falcons in this game.

The Arkansas State offense was 0.7 yppl worse than average, as their 5.4 yppl was against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average FBS attack. Bowling Green’s defense was just 0.2 yppl worse than average, allowing 20.3 points per game at 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The Falcons’ defense could be without All-MAC LB Joseph Sipp Jr., who has committed to Kansas. Sipp Jr. led the team in tackles, sacks (6) and total tackles for loss (10.5) and is worth 1.3 points according to my algorithm and I have him as out for now – although he is listed on the depth chart. I project 360 yards at 5.3 yppl for the Red Wolves.

I will Lean with Bowling Green at -8 or less.