Game Analysis

MISSISSIPPI STATE (-17)  48   Arkansas  27

Mike Leach has the best quarterback he’s ever had in Stanford transfer K.J. Costello, who has a phenomenal season in 2018 on the Farm, averaging 7.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Costello was hurt early last season but he looked as good as ever last week in Leach’s quarterback friendly system, throwing for 623 yards at 5 touchdown passes in the Bulldogs’ 44-34 win as a 14.5-point underdog at LSU.

Obviously, LSU is not what they were last season and the Tigers were without their best defensive player, CB Derek Stingley, but Costello is no fluke and Mississippi State should have a great offense. Costello won’t average 17.3 yards per completion and for now I rate the Miss State pass attack at 0.5 yards per pass play better than average given that Leach’s teams tend to average about 11 yards per completion. Still, Arkansas figures to be worse than average in pass defense so the Bulldogs should have their way offensively.

Arkansas wasn’t as bad offensively as their 10 points and 4.5 yards per play against Georgia suggests, as Georgia has one of the best defensive teams in the nation and former Florida starter Feleipe Franks’ 5.3 yards per pass play is actually good against that elite pass defense. Miss State should be solid defensively and I project a modest 5.6 yards per play for Arkansas in this game but the tempo of both teams should be higher than average and I see a lot of points being scored.

My ratings favor Mississippi State by 19 points with a total of 75 points and the Bulldogs apply to a very good 90-23-2 ATS big home favorite momentum situation that is based on last week’s upset win.