Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Arkansas (-6.5 -115)  35   MEMPHIS  22

Coming into the season I was about a point higher than the market on Arkansas and 2.3 points below the market with my rating on Memphis. Thus far, Arkansas has played better than I had projected, and Memphis has been about where I had them rated.

Last season, Memphis had a mediocre offense, as their 6.3 yards per play was against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average FBS attack, and their defense allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense (although I had them rated as average after adjusting for the outlier against Navy in which they gave up 10.1 yards per play). I didn’t see the offense being any better with former Nevada starter Brendon Lewis taking over for 4-year starter Seth Henigan and their defense projected to be worse after losing basically everyone (just 1 of their top 21 tacklers returned) and rating at #80 on defensive talent.

Thus far, the Tigers’ offense has been 0.1 yppl better than average (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average team) and their defense, while better than I had projected, isn’t as good as they appear to be. The Tigers have only allowed 11 points per game thus far, but given up 5.1 yppl to Chattanooga and Georgia State in their first two games rated at 0.4 yppl worse than average and it’s hard to judge last week’s performance against Troy, in which Troy’s starting quarterback was injured early and the backup managed just 30 yards on 33 pass plays in his place. I have to give some credit to the Memphis defense, but it was apparent that Troy’s backup wasn’t prepared to play. Memphis’ median defensive performance has been 0.1 yppl worse than average, which may be the best way to rate them at this point. That’s still better than I had that unit projected but overall, I still view the Tigers as an average FBS team.

I expected the Arkansas offense to be about as good as they were last season (0.8 yppl better than average) but thus far the Razorbacks’ attack has exceeded expectations with an average of 558 yards at 8.3 yppl (excluding garbage time) against teams that would allow 6.4yppl to an average FBS attack. Their first two games were against bad defensive teams but gaining 522 yards at 7.4 yppl last week on the road at Ole Miss is an indication that their elite numbers after 3 games may be what we can expect going forward from 2nd year OC Bobby Petrino’s offense – and I have that unit now rated at 1.4 yppl better than average. The biggest improvement is in the accuracy of veteran quarterback Taylen Green, who has connected on 68.5% of his passes this season after completing just 60.4% of his throws in 2024. The 63% completion rate against a good Mississippi defense last week (and 8.7 yards per pass play) was very impressive and an indication that Green is indeed improved in the 2nd year of the system.

The Arkansas defense gave up 7.1 yppl to the Rebels last week (but they still outgained Ole Miss) but that’s actually not a horrible performance against a team that would have averaged 7.5 yppl at home against an average FBS team last season and projects to average 7.1 yppl at home against an average team this season. So it was an average defensive performance last week after two dominating defensive performances to start the season. I had Arkansas rated at 0.6 yppl better than average defensive heading into the season and thus far they’ve been 0.7 yppl better than average on that side of the ball.

Coming into this season my ratings would have favored Arkansas by 10.5 points in this game, and I’ve seen nothing so far from these teams that would make it any lower than that. Arkansas is a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 -115 odds or better.