Game Analysis

UTAH (-13.5)  30   Arizona State  12

Arizona State is a good team, rating at 0.5 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively, but Utah is looking like an elite team with an offense to match their perennially strong defense.

Utah has averaged 34.8 points and 468 yards at 7.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack) and their defense is even better than usual in yielding just 13.2 points per and 277 yards per game at 4.9 yards per play – despite facing a schedule of good offensive teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team.

Arizona State has faced two similarly strong defensive teams in Michigan State and Cal and the Sun Devils only averaged 17 points in those games. This game is projected to be played in windy and rainy conditions that will make scoring even more challenging and will diminish ASU’s biggest strength, which is their pass attack (8.0 yards per pass play). The Devils will have no luck running the ball with their below average rushing attack (4.6 yprp against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) going up against a ferocious Utah defensive front that’s yielded just 3.5 yprp this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yprp). Arizona State will be forced to pass in conditions that make passing very difficult and Utah’s defense is 1.4 yards per pass play better than average. I don’t expect much from the ASU offense in this game.

The Sun Devils also have a good run defense but Utah is a better than average running team and should have better success on the ground and through the air than their opponent that is not used to playing in bad weather being from Arizona. My math model actually only favors Utah by 14 points but the Utes apply to a 206-96-5 ATS situation while ASU applies to a 20-70-3 ATS road letdown situation.