Game Analysis

Lean – Arizona State (+3.5)  28   Duke  27

Arizona State’s offense was just 0.2 yppl better than average this season and it really wasn’t any worse without quarterback Sam Leavitt. However, top WR Jordyn Tyson and top RB Raleek Brown have opted out along with starting TE Chamon Metayer and RT Max Iheanachor. The biggest hit to the Sun Devils’ offense is Brown, who ran for 1103 yards at 6.1 ypr against FBS competition while the other running backs were held to under 4 ypr. The adjustments work out to 5.6 points for ASU’s offense, which is 0.5 yppl worse than average with their current personnel.

Duke’s defense was a problem this season, as the Blue Devils allow 6.3 yards per play to FBS opponents while rating at 0.6 yppl worse than average adjust adjusting for opposing defenses faced. That unit is worse without CB Chandler Rivers (team leading 10 passes defended) and DE Vincent Anthoney Jr. (team leading 7.5 sacks and 13 total tackles for loss). Those losses project to make the defense 0.4 yppl worse, which is a few points. I project Arizona State to gain a decent 426 yards at 6.1 yppl against a bad Duke defense that is without their two best players.

The Blue Devils’ offense as very good with former Tulane starter Darian Mensah at quarterback this season, as Mensah was 1.1 yards per pass play better than average while leading an attack that was 0.5 yppl better than average.

Arizona State was very good defensively in the regular season (0.8 yppl better than average) but they’ll be without their best two defensive players in LB Keyshaun Ellite (7 sacks and 7 other tackles for loss) and CB Keith Abney (14 passes defended), who have both opted. Out. DE Clayton Smith (4 sacks) is also not listed on the depth chart so he’s likely out with a knee injury). I still rate the Sun Devils’ defense as better than average but they’re a few points worse with those losses. Duke is projected to gain 368 yards at 5.8 yppl in this game.

Arizona State is projected to have the advantage from the line of scrimmage, but Duke has a significant advantage in special teams. The Blue Devils are 10th in the nation in net starting field position (+4.6 yards) while ASU is #128 in that category (-4.8 net yards). That’s a big advantage in hidden yards on 11 or 12 possessions per teams. Duke also has a 2.8 points advantage in projected turnovers and overall the math favors Duke by 3.9 points, with 54.5 total points, and the Sun Devils apply to a very positive 84-19-1 ATS bowl underdog situation.

I will Lean with Arizona State at +3.5 points or more based on the situation.