Game Analysis

CALIFORNIA  22  Arizona State (+4)  21 

Unbeaten Cal once again has an elite defense and the offense is improved but the Bears appear to be overrated heading into this game against a very good ASU team with a better offense and a much-improved stop unit. The Sun Devils allowed only 7 points in each of their first 3 games before giving up 34 points and 6.9 yards per play in their home loss to Colorado last week. Overall, ASU has been 0.6 yards per play better than average defensively this season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) and Cal is just average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack) – but the Sun Devils should miss injured safety Cam Phillips, who is second on the team in tackles and leads the Sun Devils in passes defended.

Arizona’s success on offense against a very good Cal defense will likely rest on the passing arm of freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has averaged a robust 8.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average QB). The Sun Devils’ offense line has been shuffled around a lot and has been a major problem, as star running back Eno Benjamin has averaged only 3.8 ypr (5.5 ypr last season) while Daniels has already suffered 11 sacks. Cal’s defensive front should be able to get into the backfield but Daniels has been really good despite the pressure. However, ASU scored only 10 points on 4.3 yards per play at Michigan State, the only other good defense they’ve faced this season.

I see this as a close game between two good defensive teams and two flawed offenses. ASU does apply to a 120-50-2 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that will have me leaning towards taking the points.