Game Analysis

Lean – Arizona (-2.5)  34   Oklahoma  28

I would have favored Oklahoma by just 1.5 points if the Sooners were at full strength for this game, but the Sooners will be without star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who has transferred, and two NFL caliber offensive linemen.

Gabriel had a great season, ranking 7th in the nation in compensated yards per pass play (9.0 yppp, which is 2.7 yppp higher than average). I’ll assume that 5-Star recruit, Jackson Arnold will play at the level of Gabriel’s 2022 level (his first year in the system), which is 1.2 yppp worse than Gabriel’s 2023 rating. Two NFL bound offensive linemen have opted out and another, who got 5 starts, has transferred, and I value the OL losses at 1.6 points. Oklahoma should still have a good offense with Arnold at quarterback, as I rate that attack at 0.5 yppl better than average (+1.4 for the season with Gabriel).

Arizona’s young defense significantly improved this season, and the Wildcats were 0.6 yppl better than average on that side of the ball, while being equally good defending the run and the pass. Oklahoma is projected to gain 400 yards at 5.8 yppl in perfect dome conditions.

The Wildcats will be without OT Jordan Morgan, who opted out to prepare for the NFL combine, but everyone else will play. Arizona’s offense averaged 6.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack and they were a bit better in 8 games with Noah Fifita at quarterback. Fifita completed 74% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards per pass play against mostly good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The Cats are also 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average and I project 455 yards at 6.4 yppl against an Oklahoma defense that’s 0.9 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl).

The math favors Arizona by 5.7 points with 61.0 total points and I’ll lean with Arizona at -2.5 -120 or better.