Game Analysis

Appalachian State (-10)  24   UL-LAFAYETTE  19

UL Lafayette matches up well against an Appalachian State team that runs a lot of option plays on offense. The Mountaineers run the ball 64% of the time, which is an advantage for a UL-Lafayette team the is terrible defending the pass (6.7 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average team) but are very good stopping the run. The Ragin’ Cajuns have allowed just 4.0 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team) and that includes holding Tulane, which runs a similar offense, to just 3.4 yprp a few weeks ago. Don’t be fooled by the 41 points that ULL allowed to Tulane, as they allowed just 311 yards at 4.2 yards per play to the Green Wave in that game – so the point total is incredibly misleading.

The 33.6 points per game that UL-Lafayette has allowed is actually misleading, as the Ragin’ Cajuns have yielded only 5.4 yards per play overall (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Appalachian State has been 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl)  and the Mounties run their offense at a slow pace. I just don’t see Appalachian scoring a ton of points in this game.

My ratings favor Appalachian State by 9 ½ points but my math model takes matchups into account and the math favors the Mountaineers by just 5 ½ points in a low scoring game.