Game Analysis
TROY (-5) 29 Appalachian State 22
Appalachian State deserves respect for taking North Carolina to overtime early in the season and for beating James Madison (also in OT) a couple of weeks ago. However, the Mountaineers also lost be Wyoming, Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion this season while Troy’s only two losses were at Kansas State and by just 2 points to James Madison. The Trojans have won 9 games in a row since losing those two games back-to-back in September while losing the spread just once during that span.
Appalachian State has a very good offense, rating at 0.7 yards per play better than average on a national scale (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) but the Mountaineers are 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense.
Troy is nothing special offensively, as they’re at the national average on that side of the ball (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl) but the Trojans are 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (adjusted for the backup quarterbacks they’ve faced the last 3 weeks) and are overall a better team.
The math favors Troy by 6.5 points with a total of 51.2 points, taking the expected rain into account.
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.5
32.7
-
Run Yards
189.6
194.1
-
YPRP
5.3
5.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.5
18.8
-
Pass Att
34.2
31.0
-
Comp %
62.8%
60.7%
-
Pass Yards
280.6
214.5
-
Sacks
1.2
2.9
-
Sack Yards
5.2
20.7
-
Sack %
3.3%
8.6%
-
Pass Plays
35.4
33.9
-
Net Pass Yards
275.5
193.7
-
YPPP
7.8
5.7
Total
-
Total Plays
70.8
66.6
-
Total Yards
465.1
387.8
-
YPPL
6.6
5.8
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.2
-
Int %
2.4%
3.8%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.6
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.3
28.8
-
Run Yards
158.7
130.4
-
YPRP
4.8
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.3
18.8
-
Pass Att
32.9
30.6
-
Comp %
61.5%
61.6%
-
Pass Yards
271.2
201.5
-
Sacks
2.1
3.3
-
Sack Yards
14.8
23.8
-
Sack %
5.9%
9.8%
-
Pass Plays
35.0
33.9
-
Net Pass Yards
256.3
177.7
-
YPPP
7.3
5.2
Total
-
Total Plays
68.3
62.8
-
Total Yards
415.0
308.1
-
YPPL
6.1
4.9
TO
-
Int
0.4
0.8
-
Int %
1.3%
2.5%
-
Fumbles
0.9
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 Gardner-Webb |
45-24 |
0.0
W
|
39/27 |
176/131 |
4.5/4.9 |
0/1 |
18/30 |
24/46 |
218/231 |
0/2 |
4/0 |
7.8/5.0 |
394/362 |
5.9/5.0 |
| 09/09/23 @ North Carolina |
34-40 |
+19.0
W
|
44/42 |
219/332 |
5.0/7.9 |
0/0 |
22/21 |
43/30 |
275/197 |
1/0 |
0/2 |
6.4/6.2 |
494/529 |
5.7/7.1 |
| 09/16/23 East Carolina |
43-28 |
-9.5
W
|
42/24 |
237/136 |
5.6/5.7 |
1/0 |
17/19 |
29/33 |
237/114 |
1/3 |
1/4 |
7.9/3.1 |
474/250 |
6.6/4.1 |
| 09/23/23 @ Wyoming |
19-22 |
+3.0
T
|
49/23 |
220/206 |
4.5/9.0 |
1/0 |
22/5 |
40/15 |
197/3 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
4.8/0.2 |
417/209 |
4.6/5.1 |
| 09/30/23 @ UL Monroe |
41-40 |
-13.5
L
|
35/37 |
208/218 |
5.9/5.9 |
2/1 |
27/18 |
39/27 |
324/253 |
2/1 |
1/3 |
8.1/8.4 |
532/471 |
7.1/7.0 |
| 10/10/23 Coastal Carolina |
24-27 |
-5.5
L
|
26/43 |
111/202 |
4.3/4.7 |
1/0 |
18/19 |
31/28 |
301/367 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
9.7/12.2 |
412/569 |
7.2/7.8 |
| 10/21/23 @ Old Dominion |
21-28 |
-5.5
L
|
35/34 |
130/247 |
3.7/7.3 |
0/0 |
22/18 |
31/25 |
247/161 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
7.7/5.6 |
377/408 |
5.6/6.5 |
| 10/28/23 Southern Miss |
48-38 |
-17.0
L
|
28/41 |
193/324 |
6.9/7.9 |
1/1 |
23/23 |
33/42 |
375/264 |
1/0 |
4/2 |
10.1/6.0 |
568/588 |
8.7/6.9 |
| 11/04/23 Marshall |
31-9 |
-3.5
W
|
35/22 |
194/131 |
5.5/6.0 |
0/0 |
20/14 |
27/25 |
216/124 |
0/3 |
3/3 |
7.2/4.4 |
410/255 |
6.3/5.1 |
| 11/11/23 @ Georgia St. |
42-14 |
+2.5
W
|
38/45 |
258/149 |
6.8/3.3 |
1/1 |
14/17 |
21/31 |
255/124 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
12.1/3.8 |
513/273 |
8.7/3.5 |
| 11/18/23 @ James Madison |
26-23 |
+8.5
W
|
26/27 |
73/94 |
2.8/3.5 |
1/1 |
28/27 |
46/46 |
314/260 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
6.7/5.1 |
387/354 |
5.3/4.5 |
| 11/25/23 Georgia Southern |
55-27 |
-9.5
W
|
32/22 |
243/96 |
7.6/4.4 |
0/1 |
23/26 |
36/39 |
289/264 |
1/3 |
1/2 |
7.8/6.4 |
532/360 |
7.7/5.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 Stephen F. Austin |
48-30 |
0.0
W
|
44/27 |
280/110 |
6.4/4.1 |
3/0 |
15/18 |
24/31 |
208/136 |
1/1 |
1/0 |
8.3/4.4 |
488/246 |
7.1/4.2 |
| 09/09/23 @ Kansas St. |
13-42 |
+15.5
L
|
23/37 |
95/155 |
4.1/4.2 |
1/0 |
22/21 |
38/32 |
184/242 |
1/1 |
5/1 |
4.3/7.3 |
279/397 |
4.2/5.7 |
| 09/16/23 James Madison |
14-16 |
-3.0
L
|
13/34 |
32/137 |
2.5/4.0 |
0/0 |
25/18 |
46/26 |
288/174 |
1/0 |
6/3 |
5.5/6.0 |
320/311 |
4.9/4.9 |
| 09/23/23 Western Kentucky |
27-24 |
-3.0
T
|
41/10 |
202/33 |
4.9/3.3 |
3/2 |
22/23 |
34/39 |
285/254 |
0/0 |
5/2 |
7.3/6.2 |
487/287 |
6.1/5.6 |
| 09/30/23 @ Georgia St. |
28-7 |
+1.5
W
|
35/30 |
154/120 |
4.4/4.0 |
0/1 |
23/19 |
30/29 |
256/183 |
1/2 |
0/1 |
8.5/6.1 |
410/303 |
6.3/5.1 |
| 10/07/23 Arkansas St. |
37-3 |
-15.5
W
|
50/27 |
351/92 |
7.0/3.4 |
1/0 |
12/15 |
21/27 |
229/122 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
10.9/3.8 |
580/214 |
8.2/3.6 |
| 10/14/23 @ Army |
19-0 |
-5.5
W
|
39/44 |
222/213 |
5.7/4.8 |
1/3 |
10/10 |
21/18 |
215/92 |
0/1 |
0/6 |
10.2/3.8 |
437/305 |
7.3/4.5 |
| 10/28/23 @ Texas State |
31-13 |
-4.5
W
|
26/32 |
61/182 |
2.3/5.7 |
0/2 |
27/25 |
41/40 |
374/257 |
0/2 |
3/2 |
8.5/6.1 |
435/439 |
6.2/5.9 |
| 11/02/23 South Alabama |
28-10 |
-7.0
W
|
36/26 |
150/100 |
4.2/3.8 |
1/0 |
19/17 |
27/27 |
250/152 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
8.3/5.4 |
400/252 |
6.1/4.7 |
| 11/11/23 @ UL Monroe |
45-14 |
-21.5
W
|
27/22 |
97/125 |
3.6/5.7 |
0/1 |
28/20 |
46/36 |
249/184 |
0/0 |
2/9 |
5.2/4.1 |
346/309 |
4.6/4.6 |
| 11/18/23 UL Lafayette |
31-24 |
-16.0
L
|
34/20 |
152/99 |
4.5/5.0 |
0/0 |
18/29 |
32/39 |
219/249 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
6.8/5.7 |
371/348 |
5.6/5.4 |
| 11/25/23 @ Southern Miss |
35-17 |
-16.5
W
|
32/37 |
108/199 |
3.4/5.4 |
1/1 |
22/11 |
35/23 |
319/87 |
1/0 |
0/5 |
9.1/3.1 |
427/286 |
6.4/4.4 |
Appalachian State
@ 
Troy