Game Analysis

Alabama (-11)  34   MISSISSIPPI  20

Alabama looks scary good on defense this season, as the Crimson Tide have held two good offensive teams, USC and Western Kentucky, to an average of just 8.0 points and 220 yards at 3.5 yards per play. Ole’ Miss quarterback Chad Kelly hasn’t been as good so far this season with last season’s security blanket Laquon Treadwell now in the NFL (1^st round draft pick of Minnesota) and I think Kelly will struggle in this game, as he will be put into plenty of undesirable 3^rd and long situations thanks to a mediocre Rebels’ rushing attack that doesn’t figure to do much damage against a stout Bama defensive front. Kelly was sacked 5 times by Florida State and Alabama’s pass rush is at least on par with that of the Seminoles.

Ole Miss could keep this close because of their defense. The Rebels defend the run extremely well and that could force Alabama freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts to beat them with his arm, which leads to some uncertainty for the Tide. Hurts has completed a mediocre 61.7% percent of his passes and he’s still unproven, but Ole’ Miss isn’t as strong on the back end of their secondary without last season’s two star safeties Elston (2^nd team All-American) and Hilton (2^nd team All-SEC) and Alabama’s big play receivers should come up with a few big pass plays.

Ole’ Miss has beaten Alabama two years in a row but I just don’t see it happening again, as my ratings favor the Crimson Tide by 13 ½ points and coach Nick Saban tends to have his team in mid-season form early in the season. In fact, Alabama is 20-4 ATS in the first 5 games of the season when not favored by more than 24 points. I lean with the Tide.