Game Analysis

Alabama (-13.5)  28   Michigan  16

I would have favored Alabama by 9 points on a neutral field over Michigan at the end of the regular season, but the injuries, transfers and opt-outs have hurt the Wolverines more than they’ll likely hurt Bama.

Alabama’s offense averaged 6.6 yards per play (against FBS teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) but that unit struggled down the stretch against good defensive teams, averaging just 4.4 yppl against South Carolina, Tennessee, and Oklahoma in the second half of the season. The Tide will be without 5 wide receivers, but they’ll have stars Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, who combined for 1571 yards on 149 targets (10.5 YPT) while the unavailable receivers combined for just 475 yards on 61 targets (7.9 YPT). A couple of inexperienced receivers will have to fill in at times, but they should produce at the same level as the missing receivers and the tight end group is intact and averaged 10.9 YPT.

Michigan’s defense was 1.2 yppl better than average this season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team), but that unit will be missing 3 starters along the defensive line in Mason Graham, Josaiah Stewart, and Kenneth Grant, who are all headed to the NFL and are not expected to play in this game. I value those 3 as worth 3.5 points.

Michigan’s offense struggled this season with just 22.3 points per game and 4.9 yards per play, but they were at least decent when Davis Warren was at quarterback. Warren started the season at quarterback but was replaced by Alex Orji and then Jack Tuttle. Those experiments failed and Warren reclaimed the job in week 9. The offense rated at average for an FBS team with Warren at quarterback, which is obviously bad for a Big 10 team, and now they’ll be without their top two running backs, star TE Loveland, and their starting left tackle, who have all declared for the NFL draft and are not expected to play. Top WR Tyler Morris is also expected to miss this game after entering the transfer portal. Morris and Loveland combined for just 830 yards on 128 targets (6.5 YPT), but that’s better than the remaining wide receivers and tight ends, who combined for just 639 yards at 5.4 YPT. I value the losses to Michigan’s offense at 3.1 points.

Alabama’s defense allowed just 18.2 points and 5.0 yppl against FBS opponents and was 0.9 yppl better than average after adjusting for opposing offenses faced. The defensive back 7 has been hit hard by injuries and defections, as the Tide will be without starting CB DeVonta Smith, All-American S Malachi Moore, starting S Keon Sabb (injured in week 8), and linebackers Robinson and Lawson, who are both injured. I value those losses as worth 3.3 points to the Bama defense.

Michigan will be without their punter Tommy Doman, who also did a good job on kickoffs, and I value him as worth 0.9 points in field position, which enhances Alabama’s special teams advantage in this game despite Michigan having the much better place kicker.

My math favors Alabama by 12.8 points with a total of 44.4 points and Michigan applies to a 32-11-2 ATS big bowl underdog situation.