Game Analysis

Alabama (-7)  34   Kansas State  27

There are some rumors that Alabama’s non-opt outs Bryce Young and Will Anderson, the presumed top 2 picks in the upcoming NFL draft, might not play the entire game to protect them from injury. I’ll assume both will play the entire game and it’s refreshing to have NFL prospects on both teams deciding not to opt out in a non-playoff bowl game. Neither team is missing a key player and both teams appear motivated to play hard.

Alabama had a starting offensive lineman transfer, which is a very minor adjustment, but the Crimson Tide averaged 7.0 yards per play and 40.8 points this season and enter this game at 1.5 yppl better than average offensively with a strong rush attack led by Jahmyr Gibbs (6.3 ypr) and 2021 Heisman Trophy winner QB Bryce Young. Kansas State has been good defensively, allowing just 20.1 points per game and rating at 0.7 yppl better than average and that unit allowed an average of 32 points in 4 games against elite offensive teams (Oklahoma, TCU twice, and Kansas), as well as 34 points to Texas (not quite elite but the next best offense they faced). My math projects 459 yards at 6.8 yppl and 34 points for the Tide.

Kansas State’s offense averaged 6.2 yppl and 33.2 points against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average offensive team and the Wildcats have been even better with Will Howard at quarterback. Howard isn’t the runner that Adrian Martinez is, but he averaged 8.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB while Martinez averaged only 6.0 yppp (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp). The rushing attack drops off by 0.5 yards per rushing play without Martinez, who tallied 687 yards on 96 runs, but overall the Wildcats are 1.3 yppl better than average with Howard at quarterback while averaging 39 points in the 6 games in which he took most of the snaps.

Alabama has an elite defense (tied with Georgia for 2nd best in the nation) that has been 1.5 yppl better than average while allowing only 18 points, which is skewed up by the 52 points they gave up to Tennessee. That unit is intact for this game and I project 382 yards at 5.7 yppl for the Wildcats.

Both teams are equally elite in special teams and turnovers are projected to be about even. Overall the math favors Alabama by 7.5 points with a total of 61.0 points.