Game Analysis

Florida (+24)  8  Alabama  28

Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation but 24 points is a big hurdle to get over against a good defensive team like Florida, even if the Gators are banged up on that side of the ball. Alabama’s offense has averaged only 31.8 points per game and the Tide’s average of 1.0 non-offensive touchdowns per game (9 on defense and 3 punt returns) is unsustainable, especially give that Florida has given up just 1 non-offensive TD all season (an interception return). The Gators are allowing just 14.6 points per game (to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 28.7 points) and their defense hasn’t played much worse the last 3 weeks without the services of their top 2 linebackers, Davis and Anzalone, and also 2 games without strong safety Marcus Maye.

For the season Florida has allowed just 298 yards at 4.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team. In the last two games without their top 3 tacklers, the Gators have allowed 5.9 yards per play but they’ve faced LSU and Florida State offensive units, both on the road, that would combine to average 7.2 yppl at home against an average defensive team. So, Florida has continued to play at a level that is 1.3 yppl better than average. I still have adjusted my model for the injuries, as top defensive lineman Jordan Sheritt has joined the list of wounded, which also includes starting defensive back Nick Washington, who also missed last week, and DL Bryan Cox, who has started 5 games. On the plus side, the Gators do get back LB Jarrad Davis, who was leading the team in tackles before missing the past 3 games. Despite Florida’s defensive rating being the same the last couple of weeks with all the injured players out, I have docked that unit 0.3 yppl in their rating. However, even with the adjustment to Florida’s defensive rating my math still only projects Alabama to score 28 points and the Tide were held to just 10 points by LSU – the only other elite defense that they’ve faced this season – although they did average 7.4 yppl against a very good USC defense to open the season.

If Florida can score a touchdown I think they’re likely to cover the spread in this game. Florida’s offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season but they are a bit better with Appleby at quarterback (-0.2 yppl). Alabama has allowed an average of only 11.4 points per game to a schedule of offensive teams that is considerably better than Florida’s offense and Bama has held half of the teams they’ve faced to 6 points or fewer. While I can certainly see Alabama shutting out Florida, the math projects 8.5 points for the Gators, which should be enough to cover the inflated number. Overall my model that projects a score based on the projected stats favors Alabama by 18 points while my adjusted points based model favors Alabama by 22 points. Somewhere in between is the right number and I’ll certainly lean with Florida plus the points.