Game Analysis

Alabama (-14)  31   ARKANSAS  14

Arkansas has a habit of playing their best against the best teams and the Razorbacks have covered the spread 7 consecutive times as an underdog of more than 7 points, including two competitive losses against Alabama by an average of just 7 points. However, I just can’t get myself to lean with the Hogs here. Arkansas has faced two good teams this season in TCU and Texas A&M and they’ve been outplayed 906 yards at 6.0 yards per play to 1169 yards at 8.1 yppl in those two games. The Razorbacks actually managed to beat TCU because of a fortunate +2 in turnovers and they’d need to be about +4 in turnovers to have a chance to win this game.

Arkansas is mediocre offensively (5.8 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) and I rate their defense at 0.4 yppl better than average. That’s not good enough to compete with an Alabama squad that is 1.0 yppl better than average offensively (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) and a dominating 2.0 yppl better than average defensively (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average team).

Arkansas is going to have to connect on some big plays to their talented receiving corps in order to make this game competitive, as they will have no success at all running the ball against a dominating Bama defensive front (3.0 yards per rushing play projected). Keon Hatcher is expected to return to the lineup after taking last week off and he is capable of winning some one-on-one matchups down the field. However, my math projects favors Alabama by 17 ½ points and I’ll lean with the Tide despite Arkansas’ recent history as a big underdog. Alabama didn’t play their best last week, which usually means they’ll play with more urgency. In fact, Nick Saban’s team is 24-10 ATS after losing to the spread by 3 points or more in their previous game, including 22-5 ATS if they won straight up but failed to cover. I’d rather have the Crimson Tide.