Game Analysis
Lean – Under (41) – MIAMI-OHIO (-18) 25 Akron 7
Akron is a horrible offensive team that rates at 1.8 yppl worse than average for the season and they’re the same with Jeff Undercuffler at quarterback (better compensated yards per pass play than the team but the rush attack is horrible without QB Irons running).
Miami-Ohio has a good defense that rates at 0.3 yppl better than average on a national scale, which is very good for a MAC team, and the Redhawks have allowed an average of just 12.2 points to MAC team this season. Miami yielded just 3.2 yppl and 3 total points to Kent State and Bowling Green, who are at the bottom of the conference in offense along with Akron and Eastern Michigan.
Miami-Ohio’s offense went from better than average by MAC standards to bad with the injury to veteran star quarterback Brett Gabbert as Aveon Smith is a terrible passer that has averaged only 4.9 yards on 266 pass plays going back to last season (Gabbert also got injured in 2022) while facing teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Smith is a good runner (797 run yards at 6.9 yprp) and Miami will once again be happy to run the ball 70% of the time and let their defense do the rest, as they did in their week 9 win over Ohio. More running leads to an even slower pace for an already slow-paced Miami-Ohio offense and Akron’s defense is capable of limiting a bad offensive team (I project just 5.2 yppl for Miami).
I will Lean Under 40 points or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
25.6
32.9
-
Run Yards
120.9
161.1
-
YPRP
4.7
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.2
15.4
-
Pass Att
35.4
28.3
-
Comp %
59.9%
54.5%
-
Pass Yards
192.1
197.1
-
Sacks
3.4
2.0
-
Sack Yards
25.3
11.6
-
Sack %
8.8%
6.6%
-
Pass Plays
38.9
30.3
-
Net Pass Yards
166.8
185.6
-
YPPP
4.3
6.1
Total
-
Total Plays
64.4
63.2
-
Total Yards
287.7
346.7
-
YPPL
4.5
5.5
TO
-
Int
1.3
0.7
-
Int %
3.8%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.4
-
Turnovers
2.0
1.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.6
32.9
-
Run Yards
137.0
153.5
-
YPRP
4.6
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
13.4
18.6
-
Pass Att
23.6
30.5
-
Comp %
56.6%
61.1%
-
Pass Yards
197.3
200.4
-
Sacks
2.6
3.1
-
Sack Yards
14.1
18.3
-
Sack %
10.0%
9.3%
-
Pass Plays
26.3
33.6
-
Net Pass Yards
183.1
182.1
-
YPPP
7.0
5.4
Total
-
Total Plays
55.9
66.5
-
Total Yards
320.1
335.6
-
YPPL
5.7
5.0
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.6
-
Int %
2.7%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.3
0.9
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 @ Temple |
21-24 |
+10.0
W
|
26/25 |
94/73 |
3.6/2.9 |
0/0 |
17/28 |
29/49 |
187/292 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
6.0/6.0 |
281/365 |
4.9/4.9 |
| 09/09/23 Morgan State |
24-21 |
0.0
W
|
20/35 |
56/98 |
2.8/2.8 |
2/1 |
24/15 |
34/33 |
209/137 |
3/2 |
5/4 |
5.4/3.7 |
265/235 |
4.5/3.3 |
| 09/16/23 @ Kentucky |
3-35 |
+25.0
L
|
20/19 |
88/176 |
4.4/9.3 |
1/2 |
27/16 |
41/27 |
138/294 |
0/1 |
5/2 |
3.0/10.1 |
226/470 |
3.4/9.8 |
| 09/23/23 @ Indiana |
27-29 |
+16.0
W
|
37/31 |
276/113 |
7.5/3.6 |
0/1 |
26/11 |
43/26 |
199/169 |
3/1 |
2/3 |
4.4/5.8 |
475/282 |
5.8/4.7 |
| 09/30/23 Buffalo |
10-13 |
-2.5
L
|
23/32 |
138/134 |
6.0/4.2 |
1/0 |
19/19 |
28/34 |
113/120 |
0/0 |
4/4 |
3.5/3.2 |
251/254 |
4.6/3.6 |
| 10/07/23 Northern Ill |
14-55 |
+5.0
L
|
37/33 |
146/388 |
3.9/11.8 |
0/0 |
18/10 |
34/17 |
94/184 |
1/0 |
4/1 |
2.5/10.2 |
240/572 |
3.2/11.2 |
| 10/14/23 @ Central Mich |
10-17 |
+11.0
W
|
17/47 |
89/135 |
5.2/2.9 |
0/0 |
16/17 |
33/32 |
106/176 |
2/2 |
2/2 |
3.0/5.2 |
195/311 |
3.8/3.8 |
| 10/21/23 @ Bowling Green |
14-41 |
+7.5
L
|
23/41 |
88/230 |
3.8/5.6 |
2/0 |
21/8 |
38/14 |
175/76 |
2/0 |
5/1 |
4.1/5.1 |
263/306 |
4.0/5.5 |
| 11/01/23 Kent State |
31-27 |
-4.0
T
|
27/33 |
113/103 |
4.2/3.1 |
0/0 |
23/15 |
39/23 |
280/222 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
6.8/9.3 |
393/325 |
5.8/5.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/23 @ Miami Fla |
3-38 |
+17.0
L
|
22/35 |
67/251 |
3.0/7.2 |
0/0 |
13/20 |
24/25 |
148/242 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
5.5/9.3 |
215/493 |
4.4/8.1 |
| 09/09/23 @ Massachusetts |
41-28 |
-7.0
W
|
31/27 |
166/90 |
5.4/3.3 |
1/1 |
12/22 |
22/35 |
251/220 |
2/1 |
3/3 |
10.0/5.8 |
417/310 |
7.4/4.8 |
| 09/16/23 @ Cincinnati |
31-24 |
+14.0
W
|
26/55 |
132/289 |
5.1/5.3 |
1/0 |
12/18 |
20/34 |
225/256 |
1/2 |
2/2 |
10.2/7.1 |
357/545 |
7.4/6.0 |
| 09/23/23 Delaware State |
62-20 |
0.0
W
|
41/27 |
473/90 |
11.5/3.3 |
0/0 |
15/21 |
22/33 |
180/274 |
0/0 |
0/0 |
8.2/8.3 |
653/364 |
10.4/6.1 |
| 09/30/23 @ Kent State |
23-3 |
-14.5
W
|
27/28 |
102/78 |
3.8/2.8 |
0/0 |
11/18 |
23/30 |
194/128 |
0/0 |
4/7 |
7.2/3.5 |
296/206 |
5.5/3.2 |
| 10/07/23 Bowling Green |
27-0 |
-8.0
W
|
44/15 |
194/90 |
4.4/6.0 |
1/0 |
15/11 |
18/23 |
159/45 |
0/1 |
1/4 |
8.4/1.7 |
353/135 |
5.6/3.2 |
| 10/14/23 @ Western Mich |
34-21 |
-8.5
W
|
26/38 |
98/181 |
3.8/4.8 |
1/0 |
20/19 |
35/30 |
219/122 |
1/0 |
1/4 |
6.1/3.6 |
317/303 |
5.1/4.2 |
| 10/21/23 Toledo |
17-21 |
+2.0
L
|
25/42 |
123/183 |
4.9/4.4 |
1/0 |
17/16 |
36/28 |
185/148 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
4.7/5.1 |
308/331 |
4.8/4.7 |
| 10/28/23 @ Ohio |
30-16 |
+7.5
W
|
36/23 |
214/66 |
5.9/2.9 |
0/1 |
7/25 |
11/39 |
84/296 |
0/0 |
4/3 |
5.6/7.0 |
298/362 |
5.8/5.6 |
Akron
@ 
Miami Ohio