Game Analysis

Note: This play was released early in the week when San Jose State was favored by just 3.5 points. The Spartans are still a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 and 1-Star up to -7.

2-Star Best Bet – **SAN JOSE STATE (-3.5)  41   Air Force  27

San Jose State should move the ball at a very good rate in the game and their normally bad defense should be pretty good in this game given that the Air Force option attack won’t take full advantage of the Spartans’ horrible pass defense.

San Jose State has allowed 6.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. The issue is the pass defense, as they’ve surrendered an average of nearly 300 yards per game at 8.1 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would average 5.9 yppp). However, the Spartans are actually very good defending the run (4.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense) so facing an offense that runs the ball 75% of the time is an ideal matchup for that unit.

San Jose State’s defense (0.9 yppl worse than average facing teams that have thrown the ball 54% of the time) is 0.2 yppl better than average against a team that runs the ball 75% of the time. That’s a difference of 7.7 points per game in match up value, which might be the most extreme case of matchup value I’ve ever seen.

Now consider that the San Jose State head coach is Ken Niumatalolo, who was the head coach at Navy for 15 seasons and who has a deep knowledge of how to defend an option offense given that his Navy teams ran the option. Last season, Niumatalolo’s first at San Jose State, the Spartans held the Air Force option offense to just 7 points in a road win and Niumatalolo’s teams have allowed an average of just 18.5 points in 31 games against option teams (Army and Navy) while going 25-5-1 Under in those games. I expect the Air Force option to perform well below what is expected from the betting markets.

San Jose State’s offense, on the other hand, should feast on a horrible Falcons’ defense that’s allowed 8.1 yards per play this season to FBS opponents that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. San Jose State’s offense is 1.0 yppl better than an average FBS attack, as the Spartans have averaged 6.8 yppl with quarterback Walker Eget in the game (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offense). Eget has averaged 7.9 yards on 326 pass plays this season (with just 3 interceptions) against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Air Force has allowed FBS opponents to complete 71% of their passes for 10.1 yppp despite facing quarterbacks that would combine to average only 6.1 yppp against an average defensive team. I think it’s safe to assume that Eget will average more than 10 yards per pass play and I project the Spartans to average 6.0 yards per rushing play, as Air Force is also allowing 6.3 yprp to FBS opponents.

This should be a very good game for the Spartans.

San Jose State is a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less, 1-Star to -7.