Game Analysis

Air Force (+23 ½)  16   MICHIGAN  35         

These teams both play at a slow pace offensively and a game with fewer plays and possessions make it more challenging for a big favorite to cover the spread. Air Force is 6-0 ATS the last 25 years as an underdog of 21 points or more (4-0 under coach Calhoun) and all traditional option teams (Veer, Flexbone, Wishbone, I-bone but not read-option) are 61-36-2 ATS as dogs of 21 points or more since 1980 (including teams that previously ran the traditional option in the seasons in which they ran that offense). Aside from this being a game with significantly fewer plays than normal I think the Air Force option is better than their 1 returning starter would lead most to believe. Under coach Calhoun there is zero correlation to the number of returning starters and the quality of the defense in his 10 prior seasons. My ratings favor Michigan by just 19 points with the pace of the game taken into account.