Game Analysis

ARMY (-6.5)  21   Air Force  17

My math model projects 43 total points in this game but teams that run the option offense are best suited to defend the option offense since they play against it every day in practice. With that being the case, the 3 military academies, who all run an option offense, have a strong tendency to play low scoring games. In fact, the under is 41-14-2 when two military teams play each other, including 13-1 under more recently.

Air Force has a particularly good run defense (4.2 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yprp against an average team) and they held Navy’s option attack to just 7 points on 173 total yards. Army is more capable of throwing the ball than Navy is but Air Force can also have some success through the air when they decide to throw the ball and the match-up favors the Falcons more than it does the Knights.